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  • Author: Lucian Constantin x
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Abstract

This paper aims to identify if regime-switching GARCH models perform better than singlestate GARCH models for the Romanian stock market. There will be used two approaches: in-sample and out-of-sample. All estimations are going to be made for the BET Index, which is the most relevant index from the selected market. The results will be ranked based on statistical loss functions for each of the two considered approaches. These rankings should ensure an accurate comparison for models’ performance and they succeeded to return about the same results as in the relevant literature. Hence, for the in-sample evaluation there was no model which performs best for all loss-functions, but one can notice that for the out-of-sample evaluation the regime-switching models performed better especially on short-term (1-day observation period). All of these results were used further to improve some risk management strategies based on VaR, for which the volatility could be estimated through regimeswitching GARCH models, than considering historical volatility.

ABSTRACT

The Yellow-browed Warbler is a species of the Sylviidae family that breeds in Asia and winters in South East Asia and western Europe. In northern and north-western Europe it is considered one of the most numerous nocturnal migratory species from Siberia. In the southern and eastern part of the continent there are fewer observations of the presence of the species in passage or in winter. On 29 September 2013, during a ringing session in the southern part of the Danube Delta (Romania), we captured a juvenile individual of the Yellow-browed Warbler. This is the first record of the species in Romania.

Abstract

Prostate cancer is, after lung cancer, the most common malignant disease diagnosed in the male population. The introduction into the practice used during the 80’s and 90’s of the determination of serum Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) levels, as a component of screening for prostate cancer, was a turning point in the medical practice. Due to this enzyme produced exclusively by the prostate gland, the prostate cancer detection rate (in curative, intracapsular stages) improved significantly. Serum PSA is a better predictive factor for prostate cancer (PC) than digital rectal examination or transrectal prostatic ultrasound.