Various speculative phenomena arise on the real estate market, and the speculative bubble (SB) is one of the best known events of the type. Speculative bubbles still have many unidentified components, and are characterized by high research potential due to the multiple factors responsible for bubble creation, as well as considerable practical implications on account of the multivariate results describing the real estate market (REM) and its surroundings.
Speculative price bubbles are associated mainly with changes in price trends on the real estate market. A thorough analysis of a speculative bubble over time demonstrates trend changes also in other research categories which constitute bubble components and elements of the real estate market and its surroundings. The above criteria were used to identify a new research category termed speculative bubble components (SBC).
The research hypothesis states that speculative bubbles should be analyzed based not only on prices, but also on bubble components. The objectives of this study were to: 1) classify speculative phenomena on the REM, 2) describe a speculative bubble based on market prices and SBC, and 3) present the results of a study evaluating speculative bubble components in relation to market prices, and discuss the trajectories of the analyzed research categories over time.
This study attempts to determine whether a speculative bubble can be analyzed in view of its components, and which elements of the real estate market and its surroundings can be classified as SBC. Attempts were also made to identify a research method that supports the identification of SBC variables and classification of variables into groups, and explains market prices in view of the identified variables and groups. The research relies on a review of literature in the theoretical part and statistical analyses in the experimental part. The results will broaden our knowledge of the mechanisms behind speculative phenomena on the real estate market.
Technical analysis (TA) and its different aspects are widely used to study the capital market. In the traditional approach, this analysis is used to determine the probability of changes in current rates on the basis of their past changes, accounting for factors which had, have or may have an influence on shaping the supply and demand of a given asset. In the practical sense, TA is a set of techniques used for assessing the value of an asset based on the analysis of the asset's trajectories as well as statistical tools.
The work assumes three research objectives: 1) a review of tools applied in technical analysis, 2) an attempt at implementing selected tools of technical analysis for analyzing the real estate market (REM), 3) an assessment of the possibilities of implementing selected tools for assessing the real estate market on the example of the Olsztyn residential real estate market. The research hypothesis is a presumption regarding the possibility of implementing tools used in traditional technical analysis for the analysis of the real estate market accounting for the natural limitations and specifics of the market.
The work extends scientific achievements in the part regarding the methods and tools of analyzing the real estate market as well as the connections between the real estate market and the capital market.
The article pertains to the issue of subject translocality on the real estate market and indicates the scope of its practical application connected with determining the level of the economic development of voivodeships. The issue of real estate market subject translocality was analyzed on the basis of a review of literature connected with the locality of the real estate market in its subject plane, as well as by setting apart a category referring to the subject plane of the real estate market. The work is of an empirical nature. In this part, coefficients of real estate market subject translocality were used in order to assess the level of development of individual voivodeships. Cluster analysis was also used in order to establish the groups of voivodeships similar in terms of the level of real estate market subject translocality.
Social and economic phenomena that rely on "soft" factors to explain the market reality supply highly valuable observations. Behavioral elements should not be omitted in analyses of the real estate market because the latest developments in behavioral sciences significantly contribute to our understanding of this market.
The popularity of behavioral research in social and economic sciences provokes an examination of the significance of behavioral analyses on the real estate market. As an object of social and economic inquiry, the property market can benefit from recent achievements in behavioral sciences which expand the explanatory potential of studies based on the neoclassical model.
This paper analyzes calendar anomalies, generally referred to as calendar effects, on the real estate market. This phenomenon has been observed on the capital market and has been investigated and described by behavioral finance. The research hypothesis tested in this study is that calendar effects are present on the real estate market.
This paper aims to:
1) review calendar effects as model phenomena on the real estate market,
2) determine whether calendar effects occur on the real estate market and, if so, identify those anomalies,
3) determine whether and to what extent the real estate market is governed by seasonal diversity,
4) explain the significance of calendar effects to the real estate market. Research goals were pursued based on analyses of real estate transactions conducted in Olsztyn between 2004 and 2011.
The article pertains to the topic of speculative price bubbles which arise in the real estate market. The individual parts of the article deal with the connection between the price bubble in the American real estate market and the global economic crisis, defining the concept of a price bubble with regard to the behaviors of market participants, providing a description of the environment generating price bubbles, and systematizing the reasons behind the formation of price bubbles. The analysis of behavioral aspects accompanying the existence of a price bubble is a key issue. The assumed considerations indicate that the housing price bubble could not exist in the real estate market (REM) if its formation was not accompanied by behavioral aspects. These aspects include, among others, giving in to temptations and emotions, limited rationalism, herd behavior, and seeking to make profits in a short amount of time at the expense of long-term negative consequences. The nature of these deliberations is theoretical.
Various market behaviors can be characterized as risky or uncertain, thus their observation is important to the real estate market system. The extensive use of behavioral factors facilitates their implementation and studies in relation to the real estate market system. The behavioral approach has established its own instrumentation which enables elements of risk and uncertainty to be quantified.
The belief that behavioral determinants connected with risk and uncertainty occur in the real estate market system (REMS) is the research hypothesis of the present paper which aims to:
1) analyze risk and uncertainty in the REM system using the behavioral approach,
2) identify and systematize behavioral determinants of risk and uncertainly shaping the REM,
3) develop a methodology for measuring behavioral determinants of risk and uncertainty in the REM,
4) present the significance of behavioral determinants of risk and uncertainty on the example of the Olsztyn REM.
The aims were realized by means of a laboratory experiment conducted on a representative sample, as well as through the statistical verification of the obtained results. The article builds on current knowledge regarding the mechanisms of how the REM operates by introducing new issues connected with the behavioral approach to the topic of risk and uncertainty.
This article analyzes the spread of market phenomena, market tensions and trends between real estate markets on the global scale. At the theoretical level, the main aim of the study was to determine the nature of the relationships between housing markets throughout the world. The main research goal was to identify and describe the strength of the correlations between the real estate markets of the world’s 10 largest economies (countries with the highest GDP). The analyses were conducted with the use of Pearson’s correlation tests, Granger causality tests and graphs. Our results revealed strong correlations between most of the markets; however, we did not find strong evidence for causality. In a globalizing world, national economies will become increasingly interconnected, which will indirectly influence the housing market.