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  • Author: Joanna Siwińska-Gorzelak x
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Abstract

While the literature on determinants of sovereign default is voluminous, the links between private indebtedness and the probability of public bankruptcy have not been studied extensively. In this paper we aim to fill this gap and to shed more light on the influence of the size and structure of private debt on sovereign default probability. We focus on developing and emerging market economies over the years 1970–2012. The main conclusions are that both the size and the structure of private borrowings affect the probability of a sovereign default.

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to shed light on the public and private sector interdependencies in the international financial market. Using annual data on sovereign and private sector external indebtedness for 95 emerging and developing countries in the 1970-2012 period it looks at the relationship between the level and structure of public external debt and the likelihood of private sector entry in international bond and loan markets. The private sector entry in the offshore loans and bonds markets is shown to be conditional on the amount of public sector external debt. The relationship is complex but in general the saturation of the financial market with external government liabilities renders the private sector entry into the bonds’ market more difficult.