The paper evaluates the size of the cyclical and structural components of the fiscal deficit of the Republic of Serbia for the period from the first quarter of 2002 to the second quarter of 2014. The method of the European Central Bank was used, where it is assumed that cyclically sensitive elements of state are budget income tax, profit tax, value added tax on the value, excises, social security contributions and unemployment benefits. Elasticity of cyclically sensitive elements relative to their macroeconomic bases are estimated using the VEC model with error correction. The results suggest that automatic stabilizers generally played a more prominent role than consistent countercyclical discretionary fiscal policy, which means that the discretionary measures were late or were not well targeted.
The policy led by a large number of developing countries, with the aim of increasing indirect taxes, has opened the issue of Value Added Tax (VAT) performance. Reforms of tax systems of transition countries generally involve an increase in standard rates in order to increase VAT, which is the main source of public revenues. In such a way, developing countries determine the VAT performance and the amount of revenue that could be collected by indirect taxation. Theoretical analyses of standard rates and other factors that have reflections on the VAT collection efficiency explicitly prove that there are different ways to improve the efficiency of VAT collection, and exclude an increase in the standard rate. An increase in the standard rate provides a balance of negative effects, which can be blurred by recorded tax revenues. The subject of this paper is an analysis of the factors that influence the efficiency of VAT collection in Serbia. The main objective of the paper is to examine the impact of the change in the standard rate, which is the result of the reforms carried out in 2012, on the performance of VAT. Regression analysis was applied to the data series for the period 2005-2016.The results show that the change in the standard rate had a statistically significant negative impact on VAT performance. Our analysis also indicates that the economic growth rate has reflections on VAT collection. A strong positive correlation between the economic growth rate and VAT performance was calculated.
The aim of the paper is to identify a potential linear correlation between direct taxes and economic growth. The subject of the paper includes estimating the level and intensity of correlation between direct taxes and economic growth in OECD countries for the period 1996-2016. The study analyses tax forms such as personal income tax, corporate income tax and tax on property, and their potential relationship with economic growth, measured by GDP growth rate. Also, tax revenues growth has been included to determine whether it directly affects the economic growth in observed countries. The results of the group correlation matrix have shown that there is a statistically significant relationship between tax revenues growth, personal income tax, corporate income tax and gross domestic product in OECD countries. However, it is important to note that tax on property and gross domestic product are not significantly correlated at the OECD level, which is logical given the low share of this tax in those countries.
The goal is to examine the level of fiscal stress in the Republic of Serbia and to investigate whetherit suggests a crisis of public debt. The empirical analysis of annual data has been done for the period 2007 to 2014, in two cases: (i) charging indicators of the vulnerability boundaries to the fiscal crisis using the signal approach (ii) an assessment of whether the public debt is reduced at a satisfactory pace by applying the criterion of the operationalisation of debt. The resulting composite indicator points to a crisis of public debt in the Republic of Serbia. The investigation of fiscal and macrofinancial variables showed that the public sector and private sector (macro-financial side) have over-consumption followed the process of the accumulation of the public debt. The outputs suggest that the level of the public debt in 2016 is above the benchmarks, which means that there is a violation of the operationalisation of the debt criterion in 2014.
The importance of certain tax forms for the economy of any country is confirmed by the fact that they can be used to impact on the achievement of fiscal aims as they play a significant role when it comes to their share in a total amount of public revenue of certain countries. Another important characteristic of taxes is that they can affect the trends of gross domestic product (GDP) as one of the most important economic indicators of achieved development of a national economy. It is for this reason that we must point out that the authors will pay special attention to determining the impact that corporate income tax has on trends of gross domestic product in the Republic of Serbia and their interdependency. This will provide an answer to a question whether corporate income taxes have a positive effect on gross domestic product trends and what is its relation with this indicator. On the basis of quantitative research, through the application of regression analysis, the authors will confirm or refute the hypothesis concerning this problem. Finally, we will reach a conclusion which will offer answers to questions related to the impact of this tax type tax on the gross domestic product trends, the extent of the impact and its nature – whether it has a positive or a negative effect on gross domestic product trends in the Republic of Serbia