The study was conducted in the Polish (Roztoczanski National Park) and Ukrainian (Rava-Rus’ka Landscape Reserve and Yavorivskyi National Park) parts of the Roztocze region. In each of these locations three research areas were established in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands under similar ecological conditions. The purpose of this study was to carry out a survey of possible scenarios for pine stand dynamics in the Polish and Ukrainian parts of Roztocze using the FORKOME model. A control scenario was compared with four other climate change scenarios (warm dry and warm humid; cold dry and cold humid) for a period of covering the next 100 years. Using the control scenario, the FORKOME model predicted that for the next 100 years pine stands will dominate in terms of biomass and number of trees. The warm-dry and warm-humid climate scenarios resulted in slightly reduced biomass of pine stands. However pine would still maintain its dominance, although with a noticeable increase in beech and fir biomass. Nevertheless, in term of the number of trees during the second half of the simulation, it is beech and fir that dominate stand 1 in Roztoczanski National Park. Under the climate cooling scenario (cold dry and cold humid), the biomass of pine and spruce would increase during the next 100 years. Pine trees that would dominate in terms of their numbers, although the number of spruce individuals also tends to increase. The results presented in the paper indicate that the FORKOME model is very useful when investigating different climate changes scenarios in the Roztocze region.
This study has been carried out in the Polish Roztoczański National Park and the Ukrainian Ravs’ke Roztochia Regional Landscape Park, both of which are part of the Roztoche region. In each of these two locations, representative study plots were established in beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) stands occupying sites with similar environmental conditions. A longterm prognosis for the dynamics of the chosen beech stands were generated using the computer model FORKOME. The model was used to forecast stand developments for four climatic scenarios (warm-humid, warm-dry, cold-humid, cold-dry) covering a time span of 500 years. Our simulation results indicate that in the control scenario, beech stands were dominating and cyclical changes between beech and Silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) may occur. In the scenarios with assumed climate warming, a decline of fir biomass and an increase of beech biomass, as compared to the control conditions, was noticed. In the scenario with assumed climate cooling, fir biomass increased for the duration of the investigated time span. To conclude, the application of the FORKOME model was found to be a useful tool for analyzing potential scenarios of long-term dynamics of beech stands in the Roztoche region in Poland and Ukraine.
The study was conducted within the actual area of Krempna commune in Jaslo county Podkarpackie voivodeship in Poland. Historical data and maps were analysed using the ArcGIS 10.3 program. The changes in the number of villages, householders and human population were presented. Religious composition for the year 1785 and ethnic composition for the year 1939 were evaluated. Only in the case of Ukrainian population, the Moran’s test has shown dispersed distribution (Index Moran’s for Ukrainians = −0.478664; Z = −1.684100; P = 0.092162). The total number of householders increased from 915 in the year 1785 to 1,409 householders in the year 1939 and decreased to 349 in the year 1965 and 333 in the year 2018. The traditional village system (TVS) of Krempna commune was depopulated after World War II. As a result, the agricultural abandonment and forest succession developed. Class area (CA) of settlements decreased from 1174.02 ha in the year 1939 to 248.13 ha in the year 1965 and 240.2 ha in the year 2018, and CA of forests increased from 7,268.20 ha in the year 1939 to 15,465.20 ha in the year 1965 and 15,841.3 ha in the year 2018. Villages that had begun the core of TVS together with tserkvas and chapels in the centre of village, roadside crosses and traditional private farms were lost. The scale and results of such changes are interesting for future research, mainly in terms of change in TVS infrastructure and culture.
This paper presents the perspectives of FORKOME model use regarding the simulation of fre and its impact on forest stands. The calculation of probability of forest fres and predicting its effect on forest stands are analysed as well. The model is supposed to examine the impact of fres on pine stands, which ultimately leads to a decline in the viability of those trees. As a result of fre activity there were determined the following categories of trees - undamaged, slightly damaged, heavily damaged and destroyed. Moreover, by conducting simulations on forests with Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), there were demonstrated the possibilities of FORKOME model practical application. Simulation shows the possibility of the model to predict the fre damage in a particular year and the perspective of a stand development, taking into account climate change and its influence on the frequency of fres. Prospects and directions of further developments of the model concerning simulation of fre in forest stands were discussed as well.
The FORKOME model used in the article contains elements of forest and ecological approaches and was specially developed for the conditions of the Gorgans. The modeling was performed based on the single simulation results and statistically averaged forecast of 200 simulations (“Monte Carlo”) in order to show the tendency of changes and their correspondence with single simulations. The forecast of the forest dynamics was conducted at the 100th anniversary period with “control” and “warm-dry” scenarios. It has been revealed that the rapid decrease in biomass in the first decade was caused by Norway spruce decline. It was revealed that in the control scenario, the most active biomass growth during the 100th year forecast was shown by Silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) and beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). The fir reacted relatively sensitively to the warming and decrease in rainfall. The relationships between tree species and the influence of biomass of Norway spruce tree on the biomass of the whole forest tree stand were analyzed.
This paper presents the perspectives for application of computer models in forecasting the dynamics of forest development on example of Moczarne area, in Bieszczadzki National Park, based on authors’ computer models. First, the possibilities for forecasting the dynamics of forest development in a local scale, i.e. within single rectangular or circular study plot, are presented. For this purpose, a computer prognostic model FORKOM E has been applied, using both general mathematical relationships functioning within a forest ecosystem and empirical ones, characteristic for tree stands at analysed plots. Additionally, a layer of 3D visualisation of a tree stand, which is an integral part of the mentioned model, is also presented. Presented also are the possibilities for forecasting the dynamics of forest development at landscape scale, applying the theory of cellular automata. For this purpose, a prognostic computer model CELLAUT was used in which the whole analysed tree stand is understood as a set of single cells, where stages of landscape development dominating within those cells are considered as also the influence of particular cells upon their neighbours. The paper also describes the perspectives for application of self-learning neural networks in the process of supplementation and verification of some parameters of a tree stand, calculated by the above-mentioned models.