Davor Zoričić, Denis Dolinar and Zrinka Lovretin Golubić
The work of Arnott et al. (2005) presented an interesting fact that the fundamentally-weighted indices generally outperform the market capitalisation-weighted counterparts in the US stock market. The research results prompted the introduction of fundamentally-weighted indices in the US market. Since research dealing with Croatian capital market also points out the inefficiency of the risk return trade-off of the cap-weighted (CROBEX) index this paper examines more closely the risk return characteristics of the potential fundamentally-weighted alternative and analyses the source of higher returns in the case of fundamentally-weighted indices. We use the original and propose a modified Fama French three factor model in order to try to capture specific sources of risk in the small and illiquid market. We find evidence in support of the view that better risk return trade-off of the fundamentally-weighted indices is driven by additional exposure to risk factors in comparison to CROBEX index.
The fact that cap-weighted indices provide an inefficient risk-return trade-off is well known today. Various research approaches evolved suggesting alternative to cap-weighting in an effort to come up with a more efficient market index benchmark. In this paper we aim to use such an approach and focus on the Croatian capital market. We apply statistical shrinkage method suggested by Ledoit and Wolf (2004) to estimate the covariance matrix and follow the work of Amenc et al. (2011) to obtain estimates of expected returns that rely on risk-return trade-off. Empirical findings for the proposed portfolio optimization include out-of-sample and robustness testing. This way we compare the performance of the capital-weighted benchmark to the alternative and ensure that consistency is achieved in different volatility environments. Research findings do not seem to support relevant research results for the developed markets but rather complement earlier research (Zoričić et al., 2014).
Denis Dolinar, Davor Zoričić and Zrinka Lovretin Golubić
In the field of portfolio management the focus has been on the out-of-sample estimation of the covariance matrix mainly because the estimation of expected return is much more challenging. However, recent research efforts have not only tried to improve the estimation of risk parameters by expanding the analysis beyond the mean-variance setting but also by testing whether risk measures can be used as proxies for the expected return in the stock market. In this research, we test the standard deviation (measure of total volatility) and the semi-deviation (measure of downside risk) as proxies for the expected market return in the illiquid and undeveloped Croatian stock market in the period from January 2005 until November 2017. In such an environment, the application of the proposed methodology yielded poor results, which helps explain the failure of the out-of-sample estimation of the maximum Sharpe ratio portfolio in earlier research in the Croatian equity market.