Bogdan Căpraru, Norel Ionuţ Moise and Andrei Rădulescu
In this paper we analyse the monetary policy of the National Bank of Romania during 2005-2015 by estimating the Taylor rule, on a quarterly basis. We determined the potential GDP by employing the Hodrick-Prescott filter, in order to distinguish between the cyclical and the structural components of the output. Then, we estimated the traditional Taylor rule function (with a classic OLS regression), but slightly modified, as to take into account the forward-looking attitude of the NBR. The results confirm the direct correlation between the monetary policy rate and the output gap on the one hand, and the inflation differential (inflation - inflationtarget) on the other hand. Also, the results show us that NBR paid a higher attention to the dynamics of the inflation versus its target than to the output gap. Last, but not least, the central bank has been also sensitive to the financial stability, as reflected by the results of the incorporation of the ROBOR-EURIBOR spread in the classical Taylor rule.
In this paper we analyse determinants of bank profitability of EU15 banking systems for the period 2001-2011. We use as proxy for banks profitability the return on average assets (ROAA), the return on average equity (ROAE) and net interest margin (NIM). We also measure the impact of the first and the largest wave of enlargement (10 new members in 2004) on EU15 bank profitability, introducing a dummy variable. The contribution of this paper for the empirical literature is that there are no other studies that deal bank profitability for all EU 15 countries for the period considered (2001-2011). The literature splits the factors that influence banks’ profitability in two large groups: bank-specific (internal) factors and industry specific and macroeconomic (external) factors. Our results are in line with the economic theory. Cost to Income Ratio, credit risk and market concentration had a negative influence in case of all measures of banks’ profitability, while bank liquidity only for ROAE and NIM. The size of banks had a negative impact on NIM, suggesting that bigger the bank is, smaller the net interest margin ratio is, but, on the contrary, in case of ROAA, had a direct effect. The market concentration had a negative influence, meaning that the increasing competition, as a structural point of view, increases banks’ profitability. The results show us that the process of European Union enlargement from 2004 does not have significant impact on EU15 banking systems’ profitability. It has a week and negative effect only in case of net interest margin. As policy recommendations, we suggest for authorities a better supervision for credit risk and liquidity and maintaining a competitive banking environment. For banks’ management we also recommend to monitor the credit risk indicators, optimizing costs and diversifying the sources of income.