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  • Author: Aurora Elena Dina Manolache x
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Abstract

Considering that the reliability of reserves valuation directly influences the financial strength of an insurance company, the main aim of this paper is to present a claims reserving estimation for a Romanian non-life insurer based on the most popular chain methods which are typically used in practice for the estimation of outstanding claims reserves in general insurance industry: Standard Chain Ladder and Munich Chain Ladder both on the claims incurred data and claims paid data. The tail development factors have been estimated based on the curve-fitting methods. The obvious advantage of these methods is represented by its simplicity of the practicality application. The results of the research under two chain claims reserving models reveal significant differences between the Standard Chain Ladder and Munich Chain Ladder with respect to the claims reserves level. Probably the Standard Chain Ladder based on paid method underestimates the outstanding loss liabilities and Standard Chain Ladder based on Incurred method overestimates the claims reserves. The claims reserves predictions under the Paid Munich Chain Ladder and Incurred Munich Chain Ladder are between the two Standard Chain Ladder outstanding loss liabilities estimates. The results of the tail extrapolation shown that the incorporation of the tail factors can have a significant impact on claims predictions.

Abstract

The main aim of the article is to assess the vulnerabilities and resilience of a Romanian non-life insurance company in the context of different predefined insurance stress scenarios: natural catastrophe scenario and business scenario. The natural catastrophe scenario consists in two distinct scenarios: earthquake and flood, which were carried out separately and aggregated based on three stress factors: increasing by 15% of PML, increasing by 5% of the gross best estimate claim provisions and reinsurer’s incapacity to pay. The business stress scenario was based on four stress parameters: increasing by 3 % of the claims provisions due to the inflation impact, increasing by 10% of the gross earned premium for MTPL due to the legislative changes, increasing by 15% of the claims provisions for MTPL due to the increase of frequency and severity of the losses induced by the exposure growth as a result of the lower premiums and decreasing by 10% of the ceded best estimate. The results of the stress testing shown that the insurer is more sensitive to business scenario compared to natural catastrophe scenario due to the significant exposure on the MTPL line of business. High exposure to earthquake risk is a characteristic for Romania and the stress testing results confirm the vulnerability of the insurer to the earthquake scenario (non-compliance of the solvency capital requirements), due to the biggest impact of the factor: reinsurer’s incapacity to pay. Therefore, the quality of reinsurance is very important for Romanian insurance companies to be able to manage the risks arising from the seismic events and to be compliant with the regulatory solvency capital requirements.