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  • Author: Anita Čeh Časni x
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Is there a housing wealth effect in European countries?

Abstract

In this study, a housing wealth effect on personal consumption is assumed and tested on 16 selected European countries using an estimator developed for dynamic heterogeneous panel data analysis. Empirical estimates have shown that there is a long-run and a short-run housing wealth effect in analysed countries. The elasticity of real private consumption to changes in real disposable income has shown to be positive and statistically significant as well as the elasticity of consumption to changes in real housing wealth. Therefore, the research hypothesis of this paper of a statistically significant and positive long-term relationship between housing wealth and private consumption in the analysed countries was confirmed.

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The impact of cryptocurrency on the efficient frontier of emerging markets

Abstract

Cryptocurrencies are a sweltering topic in modern times of investment strategies. Since the cryptocurrency market is classified as an emerging market, in this paper a portfolio of emerging markets is compiled from the indices of four European Union (EU) countries and one cryptocurrency. The aim of this paper is to investigate how the incorporation of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency into the portfolio affects the performance of the portfolios of these countries. Moreover, by drawing an efficient frontier, the paper identifies where Bitcoin stands relative to other indices in the portfolio. The countries whose indices were used in the analysis are: Croatia, Hungary, Romania and Poland during the period from July 13, 2018 to June 07, 2019. The method used for an efficient frontier formation is Markowitz’s Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). By applying this theory, the minimum variance portfolio at the efficient frontier was created for the portfolio with and without the cryptocurrency. The empirical analysis indicates that Bitcoin improves the effectiveness of the portfolio in emerging markets of the selected EU countries, where the expected risks of a portfolio that includes the cryptocurrency are smaller and with higher returns than those of portfolios without Bitcoin. From the Markowitz’s theory point of view, the results of the empirical analysis also indicate that Bitcoin is on the efficient frontier. Since all instruments on the efficient frontier according to the modern portfolio theory are efficient, it can be concluded that investments in such instruments depend on investor’s risk aversion.

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Determinants of Migration Following the EU Enlargement: A Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

The Eastern enlargements of the European Union (EU) since the early 2000s have included post-transitional economies at a lower level of development than the existing member states and thus, have significantly affected the East-West migration flows and labour markets on both sides. This has provided a distinctive opportunity to study the effects of liberalisation and to identify economic factors leading to migration flows with the purpose of enabling better estimations of future migration trends. In this research, a panel data analysis with pair of country fixed effects and time fixed effects is used to explore several pull and push factors of the East-West EU migration flows in the period from 2000 to 2017. Results indicate that emigration rate responds rather quickly to the changes in GDP per capita and unemployment rate of the youth population in immigration country, with statistically significant elasticity coefficients, suggesting that international migration contributes significantly to adjusting the labour supply to fluctuations in economic activity.

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The Panel VAR Approach to Modelling the Housing Wealth Effect: Evidence from selected European post-transition economies

Abstract

Following Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis and Ando and Modigliani’s lifecycle hypothesis, this paper empirically studies the role of house prices and income in determining the dynamic behaviour of consumption in selected European post-transition economies using the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) approach and quarterly data covering the period from the first quarter of 2002 until the second quarter of 2012. With the shocks being recognized using the customary recursive identification scheme, we found that the response of personal consumption to the housing wealth shock is initially positive, but short lived.

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