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Alfred Brandowski

Estimation of the probability of propulsion loss by a seagoing ship based on expert opinions

The event of the loss of propulsion function has been defined as hazardous event to a seagoing ship. It has been formalized. The procedure of acquisition of expert opinions on frequency of the event occurrence has been described. It may be considered to be of a numerical-fuzzy character. The fuzzy part was transferred to the numerical form by the pair comparison method. An example of the ship propulsion system comprising a low speed internal combustion engine and a fix pitch propeller illustrates the method presented. It may be used wherever a hazard analysis has to be performed of a system involving human and technical aspects and there is a shortage of objective data on the investigated object.

Open access

Alfred Brandowski, Andrzej Mielewczyk, Hoang Nguyen and Wojciech Frąckowiak

A Fuzzy - Neuron Model of the Ship Propulsion Risk Prediction

A prediction model is presented of the ship propulsion risk, i.e. a risk of the consequences of loss of the ship propulsion capability. This is an expert model based on opinions elicited by the ship power plant operators. The risk level depends, among other things, on the reliability state of the ship propulsion system components. This state is defined by operators in a linguistic form. The formal risk model parameters are determined by means of a neural network.