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Nida Baig, Shahbaz Khan, Naeem Gul Gilal and Abdul Qayyum

Abstract

This article strives to work out the causal relationship between natural disasters and economic growth in Pakistan. The study empirically tests the linkage using econometric techniques autoregressive distributed lag bound model by Pesaran (2001) and Granger causality test. We develop a proxy for the loss of natural disasters by a similar method as Noy (2009) and Bergholt et.al, (2012) did. The results of ARDL bounds testing approach evidence a negative long run relationship between the proxies of natural disasters and economic growth. The results of Granger Causality depict the uni-directional causality from natural disasters to economic growth both in short-run and long-run. Overall, the study determines that natural disasters deteriorate economic growth in Pakistan. This is the first study in Pakistan to assess the causal relationship among natural disasters and economic growth. So, further empirical evidence may link natural disasters to microeconomics and financial indicators. In future, researchers might control the impact of foreign development aid, remittances, political stability and country’s corruption rating. Natural disasters are an alarming issue and, addressing the questions related to their impacts on welfare of human being and economic growth of the countries contain significant importance in order to attract the attention of global development agencies and policymakers. As per INFORM (2015) risk index, Pakistan has the highest vulnerability towards natural disasters after Afghanistan. So, the study contains more significant value in context of Pakistan.

Open access

Sami U. Khan, Jalal U. Din, Abdul Qayyum, Noor E. Jan and Matthew A. Jenks

Abstract

The effect of high temperature stress on six wheat cultivars exposed to 35-40 °C for 3 h each day for five consecutive days was examined. High temperature significantly affected total proline, soluble protein content, membrane stability index (MSI), yield, and various yield components, and had a direct effect on growth and other physiological attributes of wheat at anthesis and the milky seed stages. The wheat cultivar AS- 2002 achieved better osmotic adjustment by accumulating more leaf proline. Higher MSI was also observed in AS-2002, as well as Inqalab-91. The anthesis growth stage was found to be more sensitive to heat stress than seed development at the milky stage. Overall heat stress reduced yield 75% at anthesis and 40% at the milky stage. AS-2002 performed better on the basis of yield and yield components. Seed weight per spike was highest in AS- 2002, and lowest in SH-2002. The cumulative response of AS-2002 was better on the basis of physiological and yield attributes. In addition to yield, plant breeders should also include proline and MSI as selection parameter in the breeding program for development of heat tolerant wheat cultivars. Most of the evaluated wheat cultivars/lines were developed for cultivation in the rainfed areas of Pakistan.