Water plays an essential role in the everyday lives of the people. To supply subscribers with good quality of water and to ensure continuity of service, the operators use water distribution networks (WDN). The main elements of water distribution network (WDN) are: pipes and valves. The work developed in this paper focuses on a water distribution network rehabilitation in the short and long term. Priorities for rehabilitation actions were defined and the information system consolidated, as well as decision-making. The reliability data were conjugated in decision making tools on water distribution network rehabilitation in a forecasting context. As the pipes are static elements and the valves are dynamic elements, a Bayesian network (static-dynamic) has been developed, which can help to predict the failure scenario regarding water distribution. A relationship between reliability and prioritization of rehabilitation actions has been investigated. Modelling based on a Static Bayesian Network (SBN) is implemented to analyse qualitatively and quantitatively the availability of water in the different segments of the network. Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) are then used to assess the valves reliability as function of time, which allows management of water distribution based on water availability assessment in different segments. Before finishing the paper by giving some conclusions, a case study of a network supplying a city was presented. The results show the importance and effectiveness of the proposed Bayesian approach in the anticipatory management and for prioritizing rehabilitation of water distribution networks.
Ahmed Ramdane, Abdelaziz Lakehal, Ridha Kelaiaia and Salah Saad
The approach adopted in this paper focuses on the faults prediction in asynchronous machines. The main goal is to explore interesting information regarding the diagnosis and prediction of electrical machines failures by the use of a Bayesian graphical model. The Bayesian forecasting model developed in this paper provides a posteriori probability for faults in each hierarchical level related to the breakdowns process. It has the advantage that it can give needed information’s for maintenance planning. A real industrial case study is presented in which the maintenance staff expertise has been used to identify the structure of the Bayesian network and completed by the parameters definition of the Bayesian network using historical file data of an induction motor. The robustness of the proposed methodology has also been tested. The results showed that the Bayesian network can be used for safety, reliability and planning applications.