The primary objective of the study is to examine the impact of political news (good and bad news) on the returns and volatility of Borsa Istanbul 100 Index (BIST-100). Sample data cover the period from January 2008 to December 2017. The main sample was divided into two subperiods to insulate the dominating impacts of both the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and 2013 Federal Reserve Tapering on Turkish stock markets. The daily stock market data were collected from the Electronic Data Delivery System (EVDS) web service, while political news headlines were collected from the Guardian newspaper. Different nonlinear volatility models (symmetric and asymmetric Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [GARCH]-type models) were used to model and estimate BIST-100 volatility in response to political news. The findings of the paper highlight four main results. First, there seems to be a significant impact of political news on the returns and volatility of BIST-100 index. Second, negative shocks derived from bad news tend to have a significant impact on the returns and volatility of BIST-100, while positive shocks derived from good news do not tend to have any significant impact on the returns, but decreased returns volatility. Third, political news, both good and bad, can affect stock return and stock return volatility in different directions, and this direction is time-varying. Fourth, the findings strongly reveal the presence of “Leverage Effect” in the returns of BIST-100 index. Therefore, one can say that political uncertainty is still a problem for the Turkish stock market.
The paper presents various methods of solving systems of linear equations under conditions of uncertainty. In a situation when the parameters of such systems cannot be precisely determined with real numbers, they can be represented by interval numbers, fuzzy numbers or ordered fuzzy numbers. Solutions of systems of linear equations with such representations of parameters are shown in the example of Leontief input-output model. It has also been shown that when ordered fuzzy numbers are applied, their additional feature – orientation – can broaden and deepen economic analysis.
In line with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH), the objective of this study is to investigate how the day-of-the-week (DOW) effect behaves under different bull and bear market conditions in African stock markets, and to examine the likelihood of being in a bull or bear regime for each market. A Markov Switching Model (MSM) was employed as the analytical technique. The results show that the DOW effect appears in one regime and disappears in another, in all markets, as rooted in the AMH. Lastly, all markets, except the Johannesburg Stock Exchange have a higher tendency to be in a bearish state than a bullish one. Our findings show that active investment management may yield profits for investors investing in most African markets during bearish conditions.
The aim of this paper is to discuss new trends that have occurred in the policies of the EU and China towards foreign direct investment (FDI), to examine some implications of the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) – which is currently being negotiated – for their bilateral relations, and to assess the role which China’s “One Belt One Road’ (OBOR) initiative might play in its relations with the new EU Member States. The EU established freedom of capital movement with third countries; however, the introduction of the common investment policy has encountered some obstacles. These are related to investor protection and ISDS issues. In turn, China is carrying out an independent state policy towards foreign investment with limited liberalization of FDI flows. The negotiated EU-China CAI is expected to create conditions conducive to bilateral foreign investment flows, and it might bring positive effects for their economies in the future. However, the progress made thus far in the negotiations is still limited. The relations between China and the new EU Member states (CEE countries) are characterized by common interests in the field of FDI flows. The new EU countries are interested in attracting Chinese FDI and seem not to show the fears that have arisen in the old EU countries.
Aleksandra Maksimovska Stojkova, Elena Nesovska Kjoseva and Irena Stojmenovska
The subject of this paper is four Balkan countries (Albania, Serbia, Macedonia, and Montenegro) that are determined to join the European Union. More particularly, it looks at their work towards accomplishing the political, legal and economic requirements for the EU. Thus, the legislation with the EU Fiscal Compact is the prime focus. Methodologically, the research is based on an assessment of fiscal and monetary legal documents, evaluating the stages of accomplishing the harmonization with the EU’s conditions. Further, cross-section analyses are made by in putting selected indicators; additionally, the authors compare the four countries’ achievements. The EU’s rigorous fiscal rules are being quietly bypassed, but more frequently by existing member states than the candidate states; this statement is founded on legal and economic arguments, with mathematical estimations. Consequently, the authors question the political courage and financial capacity of the examined countries to cope with the fiscal compact of the superior EU 28 members. The answers are supported with numerous analyses of EU Reports for each country, as well as tables and figures that compare the states’ results and economic achievements vs. EU fiscal consolidation rules. The EU 28 average is givenin addition as a comparison. The conclusion gives across analysis between the four countries and the EU 28 member states, with accompanying argumentation to the main statement about the legal and economic developments of the examined Balkan countries as well as a future prognosis.
Bank capital is a principal aspect of regulation and will determine how long a bank remains in business from a regulatory point of view. Prior research on the relationship between capital and profitability has largely focused on developed economies, especially the USA, and Europe and the results have been inconclusive. There is no evidence of such research done to date that focuses on an emerging economy such as South Africa. Using South Africa as a unit of analysis and using the Generalised Methods of Moments (GMM), and Panel Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) or Pooled IV method as the estimation techniques, this study tested the hypothesis that there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between bank capital and profitability. The results provided evidence of a positive relationship between capital ratio (CAR), return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA). From a bank specific strategic decision-making perspective, this would assist financial institutions and investors in tailoring investment decisions in response to policy decisions that relate to bank capital. From the public policy perspective, this would assist both governments and regulators in formulating better-informed policy decisions regarding the importance of bank capital.
The aim of this article is to investigate the fiscal policy changes in six Central and Eastern European countries outside the Eurozone: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Poland and Romania. The analysis covers the period from 2004 to 2017. The study uses changes in the cyclically-adjusted primary balance as a main indicator to assess the fiscal policy stance. The results indicate that, in general, over the period from 2004 to 2017, the fiscal stance in these countries was somewhat contractionary.
International tourism is one of the most important sectors of the open economy. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects that income as gross domestic product, tourism price as the real exchange rate, and travel cost as the price of Brent crude oil have on inbound tourism demand (tourist arrivals) from Poland, Slovakia, Germany, and Austria in the South Moravian Region of the Czech Republic over the period 2002:M1–2018:M5. The number of Polish, German, Slovak and Austrian tourists accommodated in collective accommodation establishments within the South Moravian Region as a dependent variable are considered. To achieve this aim, cointegration analysis under the VECM approach is applied. The results show that Slovak, Polish, Austrian and German tourists respond positively to their income changes. Austrian and Slovak tourists respond negatively to changes in tourism prices in the Czech Republic. Tourists from Germany and Poland do not respond to changes in the Czech price level since their elasticity coefficients are non-significant. German, Austrian and Slovak tourists respond negatively to transportation cost changes. Polish tourists do not respond to transport cost changes since their elasticity coefficient is non-significant.
Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi, Tetiana Zatonatska, Ielyzaveta Lvova and Yuriy Klapkiv
The current situation on the Ukrainian labour market is not only characterised by a high rate of unemployment, but also by low-wage jobs with relatively severe requirements from potential employers. The intensive labour migration from Ukraine is forced by factors such as lower standards of living when compared to the standards in neighbouring countries, the flexibility of changing the place of living and working, and the military crisis in the eastern parts of Ukraine, among others. The article is devoted to the policy on the return of labour migrants to Ukraine. The issues of the increasing number of asylum seekers arriving from Ukraine to other European countries from 2008 to 2017, and the analysis of the main migration trends and legal norms relevant to the migration issues have revealed the mismatch in directions of labour migration flows from Ukraine and boundary crossings by other migrants. By means of analysing the interaction between the rate of human development and the efficiency of migrant integration policies, the authors have proposed several strategic tools to ease the return of the labour force to Ukraine, including the cessation of military actions, raising the level of economic progress, fighting corruption, expanding opportunities for small and medium-sized businesses, and solving environmental problems.
Joanna Bogołębska, Ewa Feder-Sempach and Ewa Stawasz-Grabowska
Safe assets are recognized as being the cornerstone of contemporary financial systems. Due to financial globalization and massive international capital flows, they transformed into global safe assets, meaning that both demand and supply sides can be created by international investors. The article consists of two main parts. The first one concentrates on the theoretical issues of safe assets: definitions, attributes, categories of investors who search for them, as well as categories of suppliers. The theoretical considerations lead to the conclusions that only debt instruments can be used as safe assets, and due to limited substitutability between private and public issues, only the latter can perform this function properly, especially in times of stress. In the context of global safe asset considerations, it seems reasonable that only countries issuing reserve currencies can become public issuers of safe assets.
The empirical analysis presented in the second part of the article confirms the theoretical predictions. A study of sovereign bond yield differentials conducted for two groups of countries (issuers of reserve currency and non-issuers but possessing the highest credit ratings) shows that in the period 2005–2017, the spreads in the first group were depressed by the mere fact they held the status of a reserve currency issuer.