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Abstract

This article primarily aims to estimate the impact of the Armenian revolution and test the hypothesis, that is, the benefits of revolution and establishment of democracy can be seen even in the first year after the political change. To calculate the short-term net surplus of the revolution, we estimated the difference between the projection of Armenian economic activity for the four quarters after the revolution, using only pre-revolutionary (assuming there was no revolution) and real data for the same period after the revolution. Using deep neural network models, such as recurrent neural networks and convolutional neural networks (CNN), we compared prediction accuracy with structural econometrics, such as autoregressive integrated moving average and error correction model, using pre-revolutionary data (2000Q1–2018Q1) for Armenia and combinations of models using an ensembling mechanism. As a result, CNN overperformed the rest of the models. The CNN simulation on post-revolutionary data indicates that during the period 2018-Q2–2019-Q1, Armenia gained approximately 850 million EUR in terms of GDP, thanks to the revolution and the new government. Moreover, out of seven models, the five best models in terms of accuracy indicated that the revolution had no negative impact on the Armenian economy, as the actual values were within or above the 95% confidence interval of the prediction.

Abstract

The paper aims to find what determines the choice of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) between public debt (corporate bonds) and private debt (bank loans). For this purpose, we estimate logistic regression models and panel models of corporate borrowing determinants to compare the impact of enterprise characteristics on financing with the use of corporate bonds or bank loans. In this study, we are interested in explanatory variables that explain the role of transparency measured by the level of information disclosure; and a risk proxy of the variability of operational cash flows and investment risk (retrieved from generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity [GARCH] models estimated on companies’ stocks [shares] trading on the WSE).

Abstract

This article presents the role of clusters in the Polish innovation system. This role has evolved in recent years due to maturing of cluster organisations and the expansion of their ability not just to provide services for cluster members but also to perform selected public tasks. This study aims to provide a better understanding of the nature and extent to which clusters can contribute to the objectives of development policies and thus to the economic development of the Polish economy and answer the question what role clusters can play in the innovation system. Based on a survey of 44 cluster organisations in Poland and interviews with cluster managers, the study explores the possibility of engaging Polish cluster organisations in the implementation of public policies. The results confirm that many of the Polish clusters achieved such a level of development that they themselves see the possibility of engaging in public tasks, for example education and specialised training, helping enterprises in digital transformation, monitoring technological trends, and so on. Therefore, it is justified pursuing a dual cluster policy. This duality means focus on two objectives: supporting cluster organisations on the one hand and implementing cluster-based development policies on the other hand.

Abstract

This article focuses on the determinants of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in Russia. The article briefly describes the historical context of foreign investment policymaking in Russia since the beginning of the economic transition to an open market economy after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. When compared to other developing countries, Russia's FDI stocks continue to lag despite a set of proactive measures undertaken by the national government. Following the literature review, the most commonly cited determinants explaining inward FDI in Russia include market size, labour productivity, trade and investment barriers, domestic exchange rate, rule of law and institutional framework.

This article aims to contribute empirically to the study of determinants of inward FDI in Russia.

This article uses the Pseudo-Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation technique, the robustness of the PPML estimation is then verified using a standard autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with the Durbin–Watson autocorrelation test.

Our benchmark results suggest the efficiency-seeking motive of FDI over a market seeking and horizontal motive as a main reason for inward FDI in Russia. The ARIMA regression indicates the absence of statistical significance of economic openness and variables of labour productivity. Overall, the market size and tax rate variables have the most positive effects on the inward FDI, while barriers to trade and sanctions have the most negative effects. The results confirm that for transitional economies, integration into the world economy, proactive local development and tax cuts for outside investors remain to be critical when it comes to attracting FDI.

Abstract

The Directive 2013/34/EU is a fundamental part of European Union (EU) legislation harmonising the regime of financial and non-financial reporting throughout the entire EU, including reporting about corporate social responsibility (CSR). Inasmuch as its transposition deadline expired in 2015, it is possible and also highly elucidating to holistically study its nature and actual transposition. A related literature summing up, accompanied with a legislation and transposition review compiled via the EUR-Lex database, makes for a solid foundation for a holistic and critical exploration of the related case law of the ultimate judicial authority for the interpretation and application of the Directive 2013/34/EU, namely the Court of Justice of the EU (CJ EU). Researching this case law within the Curia database brings forth an interesting meta-analysis, refreshed by Socratic questioning, which reveals the approach of the CJ EU to the Directive 2013/34/EU. The hypothesis suggests that this case law of the CJ EU offers valuable and as-yet hitherto-neglected indices, signifiers about the EU conforming to the perception of the nature and meaning of the Directive 2013/34/EU. These indices could be pivotal for further improvement of the harmonized regime of financial and non-financial reporting, for the boosting of CSR and also for supporting European integration and its legitimacy.

Abstract

Boosting the local economic growth and cohesion policy may be supported by using the public intervention. The local governments may benefit directly and indirectly from the place-based policy implemented as Special Economic Zones (SEZ). SEZ directly increase the employment and the number of firms, while, indirectly, they can raise the local public sector financial performance in the long run by increasing revenues from personal and corporate income taxes. This article assesses the efficiency of this policy at the local level in the context of an institutional environment and inter-agent local diffusion. It also uses the statistical methodology based on the comparison of the empirical density distributions of the economic and financial indicators within the institutional groups to detect the global shift or divergence or convergence patterns. This article examines the Polish experience of public intervention in 1995–2016 with 14 SEZ located in more than 350 different locations. It proves that in general, the financial and economic situation of the municipalities with SEZ did not improve. An institutional analysis of the SEZ operating conditions indicates that the weak operating requirements for SEZ firms together with a poor location cannot constitute a catalyst for local development.

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to analyse the impact of various financial ratios used to evaluate a company’s liquidity and solvency on the rates of return on the shares of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. In the context of developing countries, the relationship between liquidity and solvency on the one hand and the return on equity on the other is still not clear. Poland is the most economically developed country in Central and Eastern Europe. A thorough analysis is necessary to take appropriate action and introduce adequate regulations in the country, as well as to create the foundation for researching other economies in this region. In addition, this article includes new estimators that have not yet been taken into account but that may affect the rates of return, which will contribute to the literature on the subject and to the development of knowledge on the volatility of returns on shares. In the study, we have calculated the time-varying beta coefficients of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) model and analysed portfolios based on three liquidity ratios and four solvency ratios, which were computed using the CAPM, Fama–French and Carhart models. The empirical study described in the article focuses on companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in the period from 1 January 1999 to 30 June 2013. Regressions were estimated by the least-squares method and by quantile regression. Based on the results, it was found that listed companies at risk of bankruptcy are able to meet their short-term liabilities. Liquidity and solvency measured by financial ratios significantly affect the sensitivity of the rate of return on shares to the risk factors expressed in the CAPM, Fama––French and Carhart models.

Abstract

The paper shows how the original semi endogenous and balanced growth model of , and my extended version of it (), could be useful in explaining the key ‘stylized facts’ of global long-term growth so far, and in predicting its dynamics in the future. During the last two centuries the sector of R&D and education, producing qualitative changes, has been expanding in the world’s most developed countries much faster than the sector producing conventional goods. The extended model is used to explore and evaluate. the consequences for the global long-term growth of the end of this unbalanced growth, of the completion of the catching up by most of the world’s less developed countries, and of the expected eventual stabilization of the size of the world population. The theory yields a thesis, new in the literature, that the rate of global per capita GDP growth will eventually return to the historically standard very low level, thus implying that the world’s technological revolution is going to be an innovation super-fluctuation.

Abstract

Changes in banking sectors with the onset of the global financial crisis were related to: globalization, sector deregulation, technological change and financial innovation. Structural changes within banking services (at the end of the 20th century) relate to: the consolidation of banks, the merging of banking and non-banking financial institutions and their competition with one another. Significant place in the part of sustainable development belongs to bank performance, vision and mission of banks. The corporate vision of banks should be the “framework” for the future development of a bank. The corporate mission should be a “roadmap” to the realization of the bank’s vision and an expression of the business philosophy of the bank in question.

It is of particular importance for the banking sectors of the CEE countries to define: the vision, the mission, the situational analysis and the planned long-term goals of the bank. With the advent of the global financial crisis, the financial activity of banks in the Central and Southeastern European region decreased, as the number of attractive fusion and acquisition banks in the region concerned was reduced.

The aim of the research is to determine the importance of the vision, mission and clearly set goals in banks, where the analysis of banking sectors in 13 countries over a period of 11 years was carried out. The analysis of GDP and its growth in the period from 2008 to 2018 indicates a dynamic growth in the countries of Central Europe and some countries of Southeast Europe. The analysis of the assets of the banking sector and its share in GDP indicates the dominant participation of the countries of Central and Southeastern Europe that are members of the European Union relative to the candidate countries for EU member states. Analysis of the banking sector of the influx countries shows that more than 70% of the banking market in Southeast European countries is influenced by foreign highly developed banking groups. Sustainable development can only be achieved through the active joint action of the banking sectors of the Central and Southeast European countries.

Abstract

The Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) developed by Xavier Salai-Martín, in collaboration with the World Economic Forum, has been measuring the factors that drive the growth and prosperity since 2005. This paper focuses on grouping the European nations according to global competitiveness. It uses the hierarchical and K-means cluster with a particular focus to examine the grouping of countries from 2008 to 2017 and to reduce the complexity in examining the relationship between European countries. The drivers of competitiveness are grouped into 12 critical pillars, namely, institutions, macroeconomic environment, infrastructure, higher education and training, health and primary education, goods market efficiency, financial market development, labor market efficiency, technological readiness, market size, business sophistication, and innovation respectively. The mean score of Europe during the study period was 4.7 and 40% of the European countries were found to be above the average and have been consistently performing well ahead of the average on competitiveness. This study can be generalized to other nations as well as compared with other indexes for exhaustive research that can be useful for policymakers.