Lu An, Xingyue Yi, Yuxin Han and Gang Li
This study aims at constructing a microblog influence prediction model and revealing how the user, time, and content features of microblog entries about public health emergencies affect the influence of microblog entries. Microblog entries about the Ebola outbreak are selected as data sets. The BM25 latent Dirichlet allocation model (LDA-BM25) is used to extract topics from the microblog entries. A microblog influence prediction model is proposed by using the random forest method. Results reveal that the proposed model can predict the influence of microblog entries about public health emergencies with a precision rate reaching 88.8%. The individual features that play a role in the influence of microblog entries, as well as their influence tendencies are also analyzed. The proposed microblog influence prediction model consists of user, time, and content features. It makes up the deficiency that content features are often ignored by other microblog influence prediction models. The roles of the three features in the influence of microblog entries are also discussed.
Jaana Sepp, Marina Järvis and Karin Reinhold
The humankind is ageing rapidly, and as a result, there is an increasing need for old people’s homes. The nursing homes face different problems in financing and recruiting the labour force and management. Lack of resources causes the situation, when managers have to find possibilities to accomplish services and to provide quality care with the limited funds. This situation has an additional impact on the nursing professionals, who have to deal with many psychosocial risk factors in their work. The aim of the paper is to explore the work-related psychosocial risk factors and their relationships with mental health problems (MHPs) amongst care workers. A cross-sectional survey was undertaken amongst the care workers in nine Estonian nursing homes. Psychosocial work factors and MHPs (stress, somatic symptoms, depressive symptoms, burnout, cognitive symptoms, and sleep disorders) were analysed using the second version of the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ II). Descriptive statistics and Pearson’s r correlation were used to analyse the data. The analysis was based on 340 care worker surveys. The highest mean scores for the studied work-related psychosocial factors were recorded for the quantitative demands, influence, rewards, role conflicts, trust, insecurity and work-family balance. Low mean scores were recorded for the meaning of work, role clarity, social relationships at work. The lowest score was followed by burnout and the highest - by cognitive symptoms.
Lyudmyla Malyarets, Oleksandr Dorokhov, Vitaliya Koybichuk and Liudmyla Dorokhova
The article is devoted to developing a definition of the indicator of the bank’s competitiveness which based on the theory of fuzzy sets and neural networks techniques. Uncertainties that have a place when considering and analyzing the components of evaluating the success and effectiveness of the bank have been considered and analyzed. The sequence of construction and structure for generalizing parameter of bank competitiveness are presented and grounded. Stages of obtaining an integrated assessment of bank competitiveness by sequential application of fuzzy logic and neural networks approaches are determined and described. Corresponding fuzzy terms, membership functions and fuzzy inference rules are described. Overall sequence and steps to resolve the problem are processed. The practical implementation of the summary fuzzy inference of the bank’s competitiveness is given. In particular, numerical calculations on the proposed model for Ukrainian commercial bank “Khreshchatyk” was carried out. Comparison of obtained evaluation results for the competitiveness of specified bank with available data and other scientific information sources showed their compliance with factual situation. In this way, the expediency of application fuzzy modeling has been confirmed to determine the generalized indicators of bank competitiveness. Adequacy and accuracy of the proposed model and the results of calculations were proved. The proposed approach is quite general. This or similar model can be successfully used in other tasks of building and generalized evaluation of integrated indicators for the presence of several local, individual parameters for different economic processes and tasks.
This paper uses time-series data from India and tests for asymmetries in policy preferences of the Reserve Bank of India (the Central Bank of India, hereafter RBI). The results show evidence in favour of preference asymmetries in monetary policy reaction function in India and hence nonlinearities in the Taylor-rule. Evidence of both recession avoidance preference (RAP) as well as inflation avoidance preference (IAP) is established. And it is found that RAP is dominant over IAP, thus confirming nonlinearities in reaction function which in the present case turns out to be concave in inflation and output gap. Further, the results indicate preference asymmetries in both the objectives. The coefficient weights to positive and negative inflation and output gap differ over long time horizons thus confirming asymmetric policy preferences. Specifically the RBI seems to be more averse to a negative output gap (contraction) as compared to an equal positive gap. In addition, the RBI appears to be more averse to a positive inflation gap as compared to an equal negative gap.
M. Fouad Jasmine, E. Fayed Mona and A. Emam Heba Talla
The present paper attempts to expand the existing literature on Central Bank Independence (CBI) by proposing new measures for CBI. It designs two indices: one tackling the de jure CBI and the other assessing the de facto level of CBI. The two measures outweigh traditional measures in various aspects; first, the two indices are more comprehensive in terms of possible institutional arrangements. The de jure index incorporates several aspects related to CBI that were not previously grouped together in a unified index i.e. financial independence, limitations related to indirect credit to government, accountability and transparency. The de facto index comprises the main existing indicators for measuring actual CBI (i.e. turnover ratio, political vulnerability indicator and monetary policy reaction function) in addition to new variables, as the lender of last resort function, independence of central bank board, and financial independence that were not included in almost all previous studies. Second, the two indices allow a higher level of precision as they comprise aspects that can be objectively codified with a minimum level of subjectivity. Third, the two indices cover the same attributes of CBI to facilitate measuring the deviation between de jure and de facto level of independence for any central bank. The current paper provides a comprehensive definition and analysis of both indices to enable their replication in future studies.
Aleksandra Praščević and Milutin Ješić
The paper examines how the implicit coordination mechanisms between the policymakers could help in overcoming negative macroeconomic consequences which are provoked by the problem of zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rates. For the long period of time, before the global recession started, the ZLB problem was not found to be interesting for researchers. Immediately after the crisis outbreak, more attention was put on that problem within different approaches since conventional monetary policy faced substantial limitation in overcoming business cycles. Many authors have proposed new unconventional measures in both monetary policy and fiscal policy sphere. The theoretical approaches to the ZLB problem include many different aspects. In the paper we chose to use regime switching models adjusted to simulate occasionally binding constraints in order to investigate different scenarios within the New Keynesian framework. We found that coordination between more passive monetary policymaker and more active fiscal policymaker is crucial in the ZLB environment. Central bank has to follow monetary policy rule in which both inflation stabilization and output stabilization have certain positive weight. However, credible policy-making which is supported by the relevant institutions is a necessary precondition for implicit coordination, which substantially decrease the losses occurred as a consequence of ZLB on interest rates.