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László Harnos

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to identify the underlying reasons for the cyclical nature of the Hungarian housing market, in particular the business cycles, the construction, and market participants’ expectations. Our research was conducted based on analysis of statistical data and of the housing market indices. As a result, it can be stated that cyclic behaviour of the housing market may be explained primarily with business cycles, but state subsidies and mortgages also affect the variations. Accordingly, the increasing lending and the high amount of subsidies can generate a price bubble. The supply of second-hand dwellings looks more flexible compared with that of new ones. However, the expectations of market operators do not have a demonstrable effect on the housing market.

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Zoltán Birkner, Tivadar Máhr, Erzsébet Péter and Nora Rodek Berkes

Abstract

Globalisation “takes” its victims, which the authors believe means that the future of small- and medium-sized towns has become uncertain in Europe. The role of centres is continuously increasing, and most researchers prefer to analyse the competitiveness and innovativeness of metropolitan areas. In this study, we characterise the small- and medium-sized towns in the central–eastern European region as well as explore their possible development path. The authors are convinced that one way for these towns to survive is through strengthening of innovation abilities, which means increasing the innovation performances of economic stakeholders and new forms of interaction among other institutions in order to handle social problems. The theoretical starting point is the interpretation and presentation of the micropolitan (without big towns) regions as well as understanding the concept of technological and social innovation. As the result of the research, the innovation measurements carried out in some of the settlements will be represented. These experiences can help the small- and medium-sized towns keep up with global competition and cancel migration and erosion of intellectual potential.

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T. Rynarzewski and M. Szymczak

Open access

Grażyna Michalczuk and Julita Fiedorczuk

Abstract

The concept of national intellectual capital (NIC) is in its early stage of development. NIC has a complicated and heterogeneous nature with NIC models displaying varying levels of aggregation and structure as well as inconsistent accuracy. As a result, the authors’ standpoints differ according to definition and NIC taxonomy. The aim of this article is to analyze NIC taxonomy and to organize and classify the scattered and often inadvertent intangible generators of the country’s wealth. The results of the research confirm a lack of a generally accepted definitional and taxonomic approach to NIC making a search for an acceptable solution necessary since without it the measurement and comparability of results or even the management and control of the intellectual capital of the country will not be possible. Besides contemplating the existing approaches of NIC division, the authors create their own NIC taxonomy and describe its components by presenting an original understanding of NIC components. This is extremely important because the subject of NIC has not yet been scientifically sufficiently exhausted.

Open access

Ilze Zariņa, Irina Voronova and Gaida Pettere

Abstract

The study gives an overview of the Baltic non-life insurance market. The purpose of the research is to summarise stability statistics on solvency ratios, risk profiles and capital surplus, which was contained in Solvency and Financial Condition reports (SFCR) in 2016 published first time by non-life insurance companies in European Union and Baltic market (Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania). Solvency II came into effect in 2016, and these reports have been prepared using the new requirements of the Solvency II framework. All non-life insurance companies are required to have eligible own funds at least equal to solvency capital requirement (SCR) in order to avoid supervisory intervention (own funds divided by SCR are required to be at least 100 %). The SCR is based on well known risk measure value at risk with 99.5 % confidence level over a one-year time horizon. Baltic non-life insurance companies were strong capitalized (median 155 %) in 2016. It means that all Baltic companies can survive even if 1 in 200 years events have occurred although Baltic solvency coverage ratio is lower than the median ratio in European Union (209 %). For Latvian non-life insurance market, solvency ratio median is the lowest in European Union comparing by countries. The authors have analysed the historical development of the market and have calculated financial ratios, Gini’s concentration index, as well as dissimilarity index. The authors have investigated the current and future internal and external risks and issues for the Baltic non-life insurance market, such as political environment, low-yield environment, and market competition due to new mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activities, and a new rule for accounting for insurance companies IFRS17.

Open access

Monika Banaszewska

Abstract

The trend towards decentralization of government activities has prompted an increased interest in sub-national fiscal rules. The paper investigates an ex ante adaptation to the modified subnational fiscal framework. Using a panel of 2,479 Polish municipalities in the years 2011-2013 the aim is to verify the existence of the side effect of the new debt repayment rule. The empirical results show that local government units for which the new rule would have been more demanding than the former generated higher revenues per capita from asset sales.

Open access

Arkadiusz Orzechowski

Abstract

Pricing of options plays an important role in the financial industry. Investors knowing how to price derivative contracts quickly and accurately can beat the market. On the other hand market participants constructing their investment strategies with the use of options based on techniques that do not assure the highest computational speed and efficiency are doomed to failure. The aim of the article is to extend the existing methodology of pricing correlation options based on the Fourier transform. The article starts with a presentation of Carr and Madan’s concept (Carr & Madan, 1999). Then other methods of pricing options with the use of the Fourier transform are summarized. Finally, a new approach to pricing derivative contracts is derived and then applied to the correlation options.

Open access

Māris Jurušs and Ģirts Feldbergs

Abstract

There is a large value added tax fraud in the European Union. The current value added tax system is universal as tax is applied to all parties involved in the chain transactions, thus creating a risk of tax losses if one of the parties involved in the chain transaction does not pay tax in good faith. There is the action plan to introduce the definitive value added tax to prevent tax fraud in intra-community transactions. However, in order to ensure normal value added tax administration in all member states, a number of measures are needed to be done. It is necessary to develop a mutual settlement mechanism in cases of intra-community transactions. The aim of this research is to develop a possible solution for the management of tax payments under the definitive value added tax regime. The results of the research show that to manage tax payments, several payment management systems can be used. However, as a solution, a special clearing system could be introduced. Quantitative research methods such as statistical methods were used in order to analyze the situation of tax fraud in EU and its main causes, as well as mathematical modeling methods to analyze the definitive VAT system and to calculate the balance between countries in an example for clearing mechanism.

Open access

Frédéric Docquier

Abstract

In this paper I develop a stylized model of the world economy and use it to explain the long-run trends in international migration. The model very well fits the trends of the last 40 years which are mainly governed by the evolution of population disparities between industrialized and developing countries. Then I provide migration projections for the 21st century and show that future migration is also governed by socio-demographic changes. I predict a robust increase in immigration pressures from sub-Saharan Africa and MENA countries to European countries.

Open access

Magdalena Ulrichs

Abstract

Dynamic macroeconomic models (both VAR and DSGE) currently play a very significant role in macroeconomic modelling. But these types of models rarely take into account the impact of financial markets on the behaviour of economies, they are rather more focused on the monetary transmission mechanism. The financial crisis of 2007-2008 highlighted the impact of the financial market on the macroeconomy. In this context macroprudential policy and financial stability analysis has gained a stronger meaning. The main aim of the paper is to estimate a model that simultaneously explains the dynamics of macroeconomic and financial variables and to assess whether the identified relationships are stable over time. Therefore, based on the estimated empirical structural vector autoregression model explaining the interactions between the real economy, the financial system and monetary policy in Poland, financial and macroeconomic shocks were identified. It was shown that the impulse reaction functions changed after the financial crisis. On the basis of Markov‑ Switching vector autoregression model probabilities of transitions between states of the economy and the regime-dependent impulse reaction functions were estimated.