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Identifying the determinants that cause the value movements of currencies Denar, Kuna and Dinar

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate the relationship of real exchange rates of domestic currencies with macroeconomic variables in Macedonia, Croatia and Serbia by using econometric approaches. Macedonia is characterized by the regime of a fixed exchange rate, Croatia is characterized by a managed floating exchange rate, while Serbia is characterized by the regime of a floating exchange rate. The choice of an exchange rate regime is an important aspect of economic management, in order to ensure competitiveness, macroeconomic stability and development. Evaluation of the relationship of Croatian, Macedonian and Serbian real exchange rates is performed by employing the consistent methodology of vector error correction modelling (VECM). According to the results of the analyses of the real exchange rates on the long run, the selected independent variables have long-run causality in case of the real exchange rate of Croatian Kuna. In case of Macedonian Denar and Serbian Dinar the VECM is inappropriate.

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Macroeconomic effects of the budget deficit in the Republic of Macedonia

Abstract

Although a decade has passed since the global financial and economic crisis of 2008, the expansionary fiscal policy in Macedonia can still be felt, primarily through an increased level of public expenditures aimed at stimulation of the economic growth. From 2008 onwards, the Republic of Macedonia has continuously recorded a negative budget balance, which affects the resources allocation and the overall economic situation. The question that arises is whether such interference by the Government in the functioning of the market economy is necessary, especially having in mind the EU regulation in this area. Using a multiple regression model for the period 1996-2015, this paper examines the impact of the budget deficit on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in Macedonia. Results show that the budget deficit is not a statistically significant determinant of GDP per capita, supporting thus the Ricardian equivalence theory. The analysis is conducted on the basis of statistical data from the World Bank’s database, as well as data from the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia. Household final consumption expenditure, the unemployment rate and the official exchange rate of the Macedonian Denar against the U.S. Dollar are also taken into consideration as controlling variables. GDP per capita and household final consumption expenditures are in current prices, with natural logarithms applied, whereas the other variables are in nominal terms. The purpose of this paper is to provide an insight into the empirical relationship between the two main variables of interest and to initiate further discussion and analysis.

Open access
A new link function for the prediction of binary variables

Abstract

If there are no heavy sanctions in place to prevent it, the problem of the cancellation of appointments can lead to huge economic losses and can have a significant impact on underutilized resources of healthcare facilities. A good model to predict the appointment cancellations could be an effective solution to this problem. Therefore, a new Bayesian method is proposed to estimate accurately the probability of the cancellation of visits to healthcare institutions based on specific factors such as age. This model uses the regression for binary variables, linking the explanatory variables to the probability of appearance at a previously made appointment with a new weighted function and estimating the parameters with the Bayesian method. The goodness of the new method is demonstrated by applying it to a real case and by comparing it to other methodologies. Therefore, the advantages of the proposed method are exposed and possible real-world applications are described.

Open access
Online booking for travel and accommodation influenced by economic and digital development level: Position of the Western Balkan countries within Europe

Abstract

The expansion of the Internet has radically changed the way in which citizens travel, book and organise travel arrangements. Since innovation and new information technologies have become crucial determinants to encourage competitiveness in the tourism sector in Europe, this article investigates how selected development indicators influence the Percentage of individuals that use Internet for travel and accommodation services. Eurostat data for 34 European, European Union (EU-28) and selected EU candidates, countries for 2017 were analysed. It has been presented that (1) Gross Domestic Product per capita in Purchasing Power Standards; (2) Percentage of population aged 15 to 64, by tertiary education; as well as (3) Percentage of individuals aged 16 to 74, who have basic or above basic overall digital skills, all correlate positively and strongly with the main variable under study. The conducted regression analysis has shown that variable digital skills has the greatest impact on the main variable under the study. The K-mean clustering of countries resulted with four clusters. The Western Balkan countries can be found in a cluster which has in average the lowest values of all four variables in compare to the averages of other three clusters.

Open access
Probabilistic sampling strategy as a means of improving quality of price indices

Abstract

In spite of theoretical inferiority, a large majority of statistical institutes use non-probabilistic sampling techniques in price surveys. The main disadvantage of non-probabilistic sample design is that the risk of biased results is increased. Attempting to handle this risk in the domain of service producer price indices (SPPI) of professional services, the Croatian Bureau of Statistics (CBS) developed an innovative methodology and implemented it relying on the probability proportional to size (PPS) sample design. The purpose of the paper is to evaluate the impact of the probabilistic sampling strategy on the quality of price indices as shown in the case of SPPI for professional services at the CBS. The paper outlines respective methodological upgrading of SPPI compilation at the CBS, including also the method for variance estimation. The effect of the probabilistic sampling on SPPI is analysed by comparison with traditional purposive sampling surveys. The quality of SPPI based on the probabilistic sample approach is examined by coefficients of variation and confidence intervals.

Open access
The short-term turnover estimates in Bosnia and Herzegovina based on the VAT data

Abstract

National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) strive to produce short-term business statistics (STS) indicators with the high quality estimates in a timely manner. NSIs are usually faced with the challenges, such as differences in definitions, incompleteness of administrative data, periodicity and timeliness, coverage issues, etc. Administrative Value Added Tax (VAT) turnover data can be used to partially or completely replace survey data for the estimation of short-term business turnover indicators. In this paper, main characteristics of administrative VAT turnover data in Bosnia and Herzegovina will be examined through cleaning of VAT turnover data and matching them with survey data. Hence, the main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between VAT turnover data and survey data in in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Monthly Retail Trade Turnover Indices (RTI) for in Bosnia and Herzegovina will be estimated by using administrative VAT turnover data. Spearman’s correlation coefficients are used to examine the presence of a linear relationship between VAT turnover data and survey data. Results gained by using survey and administrative VAT turnover data will be compared. Based on the results of the analysis, future challenges and perspectives for expansion of using administrative VAT turnover data will be identified.

Open access
The Croatian banking system total assets concentration dynamics: performing a variety of inequality measures

Abstract

The paper provides an overview of the trend in the concentration of the total assets of banks in Croatia for the period from 2007 to 2016 with the aim of analysing and presenting the changes that occurred in the system. Also, the paper shows the theoretical framework of the indicators used in the research as well as the comparison of their obtained values. The data used to calculate the total assets concentration are taken from the Croatian National Bank. The concentration indices used in the study include the entropy measure, the Theil entropy, the Gini coefficient, the Pietra index, the Atkinson index and the coefficient of variation. The results indicate a very slight decrease in concentration over the past several years, while the coefficient of variation points to the heterogeneity of the system, as well as to inequalities among the banks, which are most evident in the size of banks assets.

Open access
An empirical study of customer usage and satisfaction with e-banking services in the Republic of Macedonia

Abstract

Recent developments in the field of information and communication technologies (ICTs) have created new opportunities for enhancing both the operations and competitiveness within the banking sector. The application of contemporary ICT-based solutions has resulted in significant changes in the traditional banking business, through the involvement of brand new approaches in the process of distribution of banking products and services to customers. As a part of the services offered by any modern bank, e-banking has become a synonym for an efficient system aimed at delivering traditional banking services through electronic communications channels, available to anybody, anywhere and anytime. The goal of the paper is to perform an empirical analysis of the current situation regarding the level of customer usage and satisfaction with e-banking services in the Republic of Macedonia. The study will enable us to determine which variables affect the level of adoption and satisfaction with е-banking services. The study is fully based on the statistical data analysis of the responses gathered from a representative sample of e-banking customers.

Open access
Information and communication technologies and teacher education in the new paradigms of higher education

Abstract

Media use in the teaching process occurs in several forms. Information and communication technologies can be used as work equipment and teaching aids, as well as tools or curriculum units, particularly in higher education. Technological changes and new information technologies, in addition to substantive knowledge of the material, require from teachers creativity, knowledge, and the skills of the didactic design of teaching using modern multimedia tools. In Croatia, there is a lack of research aimed at assessing the initial state of computer literacy within the higher education institutions. The aim of this study was to determine the level of knowledge and digital competence of (non) teachers of higher education institutions in the Republic of Croatia, to determine the frequency of application of modern technologies in teaching, and to explain the necessity of implementation of the programme Multimedia training and e-learning at teaching faculties, which leads to the application of new educational paradigms. The study was conducted on a representative sample (N=1800) of (non) teachers of higher education institutions in the Republic of Croatia among various faculties and departments in Osijek, Split and Zagreb. The results show that (non) teachers of higher education institutions of engineering and information sciences have the best digital competences, and apply modern technology in research and scientific work significantly more than (non) teachers of social sciences and humanities.

Open access
Process of ranking countries by level of development

Abstract

The paper presents the process of ranking and classifying countries using the I-distance method. The I-distance method is a method of classification and multidimensional ranking based on the distance values between selected indicators. The selection of indicators was carried out using the principal components analysis, whereby the statistical software SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Sciences), the latest version 21th PASW Statistics, is used. The application of the I-distance determines the relative efficiency indicators. Classification and ranking are conducted based on the economic development using macroeconomic indicators for the selected European countries.

Open access