Budget transparency innovations bring new extent and forms of transparency. The aim of the article is to explore the diffusion of budget explorers, that is, a budget transparency innovation extremely popular in the Czech Republic, and to evaluate their impact on voluntary budget information disclosed.
Careful mapping of the diffusion using a survey of budget explores in 72 former Czech district towns and media analysis shows that the key success factor was its convenience for politicians, as it is attractive, easy to implement and up-to-date demonstration of their transparency. Budget explorers are nowadays a standard extension to accounting software, and their usage is evaluated in several government transparency competitions.
The major benefit of the budget explorers is that they made for the first time publicly available detailed public financial information, changed the standard of best practice and drew some public attention. At the same time, they, unfortunately, narrowed the scope of the budget transparency debate by omitting the importance of the draft budget and introduction of performance measurement.
Marta Postuła and Jacek Tomkiewicz
This article focuses on the effects of corrections to the budgetary policy in eurozone economies. The goal of the text is to check if advancement in implementing modern tools of public management is helpful in the time of fiscal adjustment. We assume that the most important role of a performance approach in conducting fiscal policy is the ability of government to implement active policy meant as structural changes in the composition of public expenditures. In the case of the need to cut general levels of public spending, public sector managers who have knowledge of performance effects of public policies should be able to conduct fiscal adjustment in such a way as to minimise negative outcomes of spending correction on society. The structure of the text is as follows. First, we present some insights on the economic effects of fiscal adjustment. Then, we discuss the concept of performance management presented in the theory and policy agendas of international institutions such as the European Union or the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Finally, we present the result of an empirical exercise that is designed to combine the level of advancement in implementing performance budgeting (PB) and the social cost of fiscal adjustment in eurozone economies. The most important finding of the research is that PB tools seem to have very limited usefulness in a time of fiscal adjustment. There is no statistical evidence that countries advanced in utilisation of PB tools conduct more active fiscal policy – approach of cutting all expenditures across the border by given percentage rather than looking at priorities and social outcomes of fiscal adjustment dominates in all cases.
Krzysztof Dmytrów and Sebastian Gnat
It is believed that the ad valorem tax will increase fiscal burdens. In order to verify this statement, with the use of the Szczecin Algorithm of Real Estates Mass Appraisal, the land plots were appraised and the ad valorem tax was calculated. Next, a training set was sampled, for which the composite variable was calculated by means of three approaches: the TOPSIS method, the Generalised Distance Measure as the composite measure of development (GDM2), and the quasi-TOPSIS. They were the explanatory variables in the logistic regression model. Next, for the test set, changes of tax burden were forecasted. The aim of the research was to check the effectiveness of the presented approach for the estimation of the consequences of introducing the ad valorem tax. The results showed that all three approaches yielded similar results, but GDM2 was the best one. The main finding is that these approaches can be used in the prediction of changes in the tax burden of land plots.
The aim of the paper is to assess the potential for using some selected PCA-based methods to analyze the spatial diversity of crime in Poland during 2000-2017. Classical principal components analysis (PCA) deals with two-way matrices, usually taking into account objects and variables. In the case of data analyzed in the study, apart from two dimensions (objects – voivodships, variables – criminal offences), there is also the dimension of time, so the dataset can be seen as data cube: objects × variables × time. Therefore, this type of data requires the use of methods handling three-way data structures. In the paper the variability of some selected categories of criminal offences in time (2000–2017) and space (according to voivodships) is analyzed using the between-class and the within-class principal component analysis. The advantage of these methods is, among others, the possibility of the graphical presentation of the results in two-dimensional space with the use of factorial maps.
Ewa Roszkowska and Tomasz Wachowicz
The paper discusses the impact of the decision-making profiles on the consistency of rankings obtained by three multiple criteria methods, i.e. DR, AHP and TOPSIS. The online decision making experiment was organized, based on an electronic questionnaire which is a hybrid of the internet survey system and the decision support system. The participants of the experiment were 418 students of Polish universities. To describe the decision-making profile, the REI test was used which allows to distinguish two decision-making styles: rational and intuitive. The Kendall rank correlation coefficient was used to test the consistency of the rankings obtained by the considered methods. Using different grouping methods, the relationship between the decision profile and the ability to express one’s preferences by means of these methods, that differ in cognitive requirements, was examined. The results of the research may be helpful for supporting the decision-maker in decision processes by choosing the method that fits their profile best.
One of the central tasks of credit institutions is credit risk assessment, in which the estimation of the probability of default is an important element. The size of an institution’s credit portfolio can decrease as a result of early repayments, which changes the probability of default over time. Prognosis of the probability of default should therefore also take into consideration the prognosis of early repayments. In this paper, methods of evaluating the probability of default over time, using competing risks regression models, are considered. Methods of evaluation for models of default over time are proposed. A sample of retail credits, provided by a Polish financial institution, was empirically examined.
The beta parameter is a popular tool for the evaluation of portfolio performance. The Sharpe single-index model is a simple regression model in which the stock’s returns are regressed against the returns of a broader index. The beta parameter is a measure of the strength of this relation. Extensive recent research has proved that the beta is not constant in time and should be modelled as a time-variant coefficient. One of the most popular methods of the estimation of a time-varying beta is the Kalman filter. As the output of the Kalman filter, one obtains a sequence of the estimates of a time-varying beta. This sequence shows the historical dynamics of sensitivity of a company’s returns to the variations of market returns. The article proposes a method of clustering companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange according to time-varying betas.
Zdzisław Kes and Łukasz Kuźmiński
This paper presents the methods for the evaluation of budget variance risk, i.e. the risk of a difference between the budgeted and actual figures. The postulated approach is based on extreme value analysis (EVA), to offer, among other things, the evaluation of maxima distribution parameters for studied phenomena. The proper recognition of these parameters yields potential for calculation of probabilities for budget variance to pass certain levels established as critical. This methodology can be used to evaluate deviation levels by time period, and to compare them against historical data. The main objective of this paper was to examine the utility of the theory of extreme values in the estimation of budget deviation risks. The study presents the results of probabilistic analyses of data obtained from a budgetary cost control unit of a production company located in eastern Poland, for the period of 2011-2012. The developed method of analysis and assessment of budget deviations is in line with the development of concepts and methods of management accounting.
The aim of the research was an assessment of the relative risk of liquidation of a company depending on its age. The research covered economic entities established in Szczecin in the period 1990-2010. The analysis was carried out with the use of a logit model. The risk of company liquidation was examined depending on the entity’s age expressed both in months (continuous variable) and in grouped intervals (year, half-year). In this way, attention was drawn to the benefits of continuous variable coding (rank and 0-1 coding). The research covered companies established during 1990-2010 in total (over 120 thousand) and in time periods resulting from the cyclical character of liquidation of companies (in accordance with the earlier research findings). The research showed that the risk of company liquidation decreases as the company grows older (the use of a continuous variable and a rank variable). On the other hand, the risk of subsequent age groups (using the 0-1 variable) prevents the risk from being monotonous.