Katharine Hall and Dorrit Posel
The disruption of family life is one of the important legacies of South Africa’s colonial and apartheid history. Families were undermined by deliberate strategies implemented through the pass laws, forced removals, urban housing policy, and the creation of homelands. Despite the removal of legal restrictions on permanent urban settlement and family co-residence for Africans, patterns of internal and oscillating labor migration have endured, dual or stretched households continue to link urban and rural nodes, children have remained less urbanized than adults, and many grow up without coresident parents. Although children are clearly affected by adult labor migration, they have tended to be ignored in the migration discourse. In this study, we add to the literature by showing how a child lens advances our understanding of the complexities of household arrangements and migration processes for families. In a mixed-methods study, we use nationally representative panel data to describe persistence, and also change, in migration patterns in South Africa when viewed from the perspective of children. We then draw on a detailed case study to explore what factors constrain or permit families to migrate together, or children to join adults at migration destination areas.
Ekkehardt Ernst, Rossana Merola and Daniel Samaan
The current wave of technological change based on advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) has created widespread fear of job loss and further rises in inequality. This paper discusses the rationale for these fears, highlighting the specific nature of AI and comparing previous waves of automation and robotization with the current advancements made possible by a widespread adoption of AI. It argues that large opportunities in terms of increases in productivity can ensue, including for developing countries, given the vastly reduced costs of capital that some applications have demonstrated and the potential for productivity increases, especially among the low skilled. At the same time, risks in the form of further increases in inequality need to be addressed if the benefits from AI-based technological progress are to be broadly shared. For this, skills policies are necessary but not sufficient. In addition, new forms of regulating the digital economy are called for that prevent further rises in market concentration, ensure proper data protection and privacy, and help share the benefits of productivity growth through the combination of profit sharing, (digital) capital taxation, and a reduction in working time. The paper calls for a moderately optimistic outlook on the opportunities and risks from AI, provided that policymakers and social partners take the particular characteristics of these new technologies into account.
Myanmar has been undergoing a process of post-socialist systemic transformation. During the reform period, its authorities used policy and institutional solutions of the East Asian development model in its post-socialist version, creating foundations for the post-socialist developmental state (PSDS).
The concept of the PSDS combines features of a developmental state (DS) and systemic transformation from central planning to market. A developmental state (DS) is considered to be an ideological and conceptual basis for the state’s economic policy and institutional and systemic arrangements that resulted in spectacular developmental achievements of some of the East Asian economies in the second half of the 20th century. Post-socialist transformation is considered the most multi-layered and complicated process of systemic reformulation, which took place at the end of the 20th and the beginning of 21st centuries.
The article describes the process of building a PSDS in Myanmar. In economic policy, the authorities have focused on the industrialisation through the development of an export production base. Nevertheless, access to the internal market has often been restricted for foreign entities. Planning through a state planning agency remains a key tool in the formulation of a development strategy. In addition, systemic reforms have been gradual rather than radical (a shock therapy).
Przemysław Ryś and Robert Ślepaczuk
The main aim of this paper was to formulate and analyse the machine learning methods, fitted to the strategy parameters optimization specificity. The most important problems are the sensitivity of a strategy performance to little parameter changes and numerous local extrema distributed over the solution space in an irregular way. The methods were designed for the purpose of significant shortening of the computation time, without a substantial loss of strategy quality. The efficiency of methods was compared for three different pairs of assets in case of moving averages crossover system. The problem was presented for three sets of two assets’ portfolios. In the first case, a strategy was trading on the SPX and DAX index futures; in the second, on the AAPL and MSFT stocks; and finally, in the third case, on the HGF and CBF commodities futures. The methods operated on the in-sample data, containing 16 years of daily prices between 1998 and 2013 and was validated on the out-of-sample period between 2014 and 2017. The major hypothesis verified in this paper is that machine learning methods select strategies with evaluation criterion near the highest one, but in significantly lower execution time than the brute force method (Exhaustive Search).
Robert Ślepaczuk and Maryna Zenkova
This study investigates the profitability of an algorithmic trading strategy based on training SVM model to identify cryptocurrencies with high or low predicted returns. A tail set is defined to be a group of coins whose volatility-adjusted returns are in the highest or the lowest quintile. Each cryptocurrency is represented by a set of six technical features. SVM is trained on historical tail sets and tested on the current data. The classifier is chosen to be a nonlinear support vector machine. The portfolio is formed by ranking coins using the SVM output. The highest ranked coins are used for long positions to be included in the portfolio for one reallocation period. The following metrics were used to estimate the portfolio profitability: %ARC (the annualized rate of change), %ASD (the annualized standard deviation of daily returns), MDD (the maximum drawdown coefficient), IR1, IR2 (the information ratio coefficients). The performance of the SVM portfolio is compared to the performance of the four benchmark strategies based on the values of the information ratio coefficient IR1, which quantifies the risk-weighted gain. The question of how sensitive the portfolio performance is to the parameters set in the SVM model is also addressed in this study.
Johannes Karlsson and Thorolfur Matthiasson
Old age, illness, and/or physical and/or mental disabilities may limit the ability of an individual to generate enough income to cover basic costs of living. Most developed nations provide financial assistance to persons with limited abilities. In 1974, an Icelandic government passed an act of law providing a tax credit, payable to taxpayers under certain conditions. The tax allowance was applied first to settle the taxes and public levies owed by the taxpayer, with any amount remaining paid out to the individual. This system can be seen as a first, limited attempt at establishing a partial universal basic income of sorts. This social interaction between stakeholders on how to share the tax revenue between the taxpayers led to a government crisis. The shareholders in this partial universal basic income system, the state and municipalities, the old age community, the trade unions, and the employers all have different financial and political interests and were affected by this reform. The lesson is that a basic income would need strong supporters if implemented, where the role of the government and/or the parliament would be mapped. Its supporters must be able to withstand the pressure from the social partners in the labor market because of the interactivity of the social security system and the pension fund system, which is not a part of the fiscal system in Iceland. The conflict of interests becomes apparent.
Jan Kellgren, Eivind Furuseth and Matti Kukkonen
For a correct application of tax laws, it is central to know at what time or period the conditions of each case are to be tested against the respective tax rule. For example, in many questions, the conditions at the time of the transaction are decisive, but not seldom the tax rules take aim at the conditions at the end of the year – or some other time or period. It is also important to know what significance should be given to events after this time or period, not least when the income declaration is made and assessed. Here, these partly overlooked questions are presented and analyzed from the Swedish, Norwegian and Finnish income tax-perspectives.
James A. Walsh
The evolution of spatial planning in Ireland, and more widely, has been a complex process in which many narratives have been explored at different times. In 2018 the government published the National Planning Framework (NPF) to guide and support the achievement of a challenging and potentially transformative development strategy for Ireland 2040. The NPF is grounded in a vision that sets out to be disruptive of what has become embedded as the status quo in political, administrative and planning decision-making. While it is a very innovative addition to the portfolio of government policies and strategies, it is not the first time that radical visions have been proposed. This paper reviews previous visions and plans for regional development that have been proposed over the last seventy-five years, and critically compares and contrasts the approaches represented by the National Spatial Strategy (2002–20) and the NPF (2018–40), including the subsequent draft regional spatial and economic strategies. The implications of the population projections and the proposed settlement patterns for the achievement of the NPF objective of effective regional development, which is expressed as a regional parity target, are closely examined.