Long and Short-Term Dynamic Relationship between Macedonian and Croatian Stock Markets

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Abstract

The aim of this study is the empirical investigation of the long-run relations and the short-term dynamics between two Balkan stock markets: Macedonian and Croatian. The presence of long run common trend between the Macedonian and Croatian stock market indices is identified by applying Johansen’s cointegration maximum eigenvalue and trace tests, while potential causal relations are examined by employing Granger’s causality tests. Data sample spans from January 3rd, 2005 to March 31st, 2017. The stock market indices were found to be co-integrated with significant relationships. A bi-directional pattern of causality is documented between the Macedonian and Croatian returns. This pattern is remarkably stable and suggests significant economic ties between the investors in Macedonian and Croatian stock markets. The findings are important for the investors meaning that they cannot gain diversification benefits of investing in the Croatian or Macedonian stock market.

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