Assessing the Possibility of Implementing Tools of Technical Analysys for Real Estate Market Analysis

Open access


Technical analysis (TA) and its different aspects are widely used to study the capital market. In the traditional approach, this analysis is used to determine the probability of changes in current rates on the basis of their past changes, accounting for factors which had, have or may have an influence on shaping the supply and demand of a given asset. In the practical sense, TA is a set of techniques used for assessing the value of an asset based on the analysis of the asset's trajectories as well as statistical tools.

The work assumes three research objectives: 1) a review of tools applied in technical analysis, 2) an attempt at implementing selected tools of technical analysis for analyzing the real estate market (REM), 3) an assessment of the possibilities of implementing selected tools for assessing the real estate market on the example of the Olsztyn residential real estate market. The research hypothesis is a presumption regarding the possibility of implementing tools used in traditional technical analysis for the analysis of the real estate market accounting for the natural limitations and specifics of the market.

The work extends scientific achievements in the part regarding the methods and tools of analyzing the real estate market as well as the connections between the real estate market and the capital market.

If the inline PDF is not rendering correctly, you can download the PDF file here.

  • Achelis S. B. 2001 Technical Analysis from A to Z. McGraw Hill NY USA.

  • Aczel A. 2011. Statystyka w zarządzaniu (Statistics in Management) PWN Warszawa.

  • Arms R.W. 1997 Znaczenie wolumenu (The Significance of Volume) WIG-Press Warsaw.

  • Augustyniak H. Łaszek J. Olszewski K. Waszczuk J. 2012 Cycles on the Housing and Commercial Real Estate Market Risks and the Need for Appropriate and Prudent Valuation MPRA Paper No. 41070.

  • Barańska A. 2008 Metody jakościowe i ilościowe na usługach wyceny nieruchomości (Qualitative and Quantitative Methods in Real Estate Valuation Services) Acta Scientiarum Polonorum Geodesia et Descriptio Terrarum No. 7(2) pp. 3-13.

  • Barberis N. 2011 Psychology and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 Available at SSRN 1742463.

  • Barberis N. 2013 Psychology and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 pp. 15-28. In: M. Haliassos (ed.). Financial innovation: too much or too little? MIT Press.

  • Bełej M. Cellmer R. 2014 The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Changes in Real Estate Prices on Unstable Markets - Response and Interaction Acta Scientiarum Polonorum Seria Oeconomia No. 13(2) pp. 5-16.

  • Blanchard O. 2009 The Crisis: Basic Mechanisms and Appropriate Policies Working Papers International Monetary Fund No. WP/09/80.

  • Bollinger J. 1992 Using Bollinger Bands. Stocks & Commodities No. 10(2) pp. 47-51.

  • Brueggeman W. B. Fisher J.D. 2008 Real Estate Finance & Investments 14 ed. McGraw-Hil Irwin. NY USA.

  • Brzezicka J. Wiśniewski R. 2016a Information Cascade on the Real Estate Market unpublished research.

  • Brzezicka J. Wiśniewski R. 2016b Translocality on the Real Estate Market Land Use Policy no. 55 pp. 166-181.

  • Bryx M. Matkowski R. 2002 Inwestycje w nieruchomości (Investments in Real Estate) Poltext Warszawa.

  • Case K.E. Quigley J.M. Shiller R.J. 2005 Comparing Wealth Effects: the Stock Market Versus the Housing Market Advances in Macroeconomics No. 5(1) pp. 1-32.

  • Cellmer R. Szczepankowska K. 2014 Simulation Modeling in a Real Estate Market 9th International Conference “Environmental Engineering" Vilnius Gediminas Technical University May 22-23

  • Delisle J.R. 2002 Real Estate and the Capital Markets: A Transitional Period of Spatial Market/Capital Market Convergence Appraisal Journal No. 70(2) pp. 121-131.

  • Dow C.H. 1920 Scientific Stock Speculation (The Magazine of Wall Street) NY USA.

  • Edwards R. D. Magee J. Bassetti W.C. 2007. Technical Analysis of Stock Trends CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group FL USA.

  • Eldred G.W. 2009 Investing in Real Estate 6th ed. John Wiley & Sons Inc. Hoboken NJ USA.

  • Ellis C.A. Parbery S.A. 2005 Is smarter better? A Comparison of Adaptive and Simple Moving Average Trading Strategies Research in International Business and Finance No. 19(3) pp. 399-411.

  • Gately E. 1998 Forecasting Profits Using Price and Time (Vol. 9) John Wiley & Sons NY USA.

  • Geltner D. Miller N. Clayton J. Eichholtz P.M.A. 2010 Commercial Real Estate Analysis and Investments 2nd Edition South-Western Educational Publishing USA.

  • Gdakowicz A. 2014 The Application of Japanese Candlestick Charting on the Residential Real Estate Market Real Estate Management and Valuation No. 22(4) pp. 27-34.

  • Gdakowicz A. 2015 Wykresy świecowe rynku nieruchomości mieszkaniowych (Candlestick Charting of Residential Real Estate Market) Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego (Scientific Journals of the University of Szczecin). Finanse Rynki finansowe. Ubezpieczenia (Finances Financial Markets. Insurance)s No. 75 pp. 149-158.

  • Gunasekarage A. Power D.M. 2001 The Profitability of Moving Average Trading Rules in South Asian Stock Markets Emerging Markets Review No. 2(1) pp. 17-33.

  • Gyourko J. Keim D. B. 1992 What does the Stock Market Tell us about Real Estate Returns? Real Estate Economics No. 20(3) pp. 457-485.

  • Hott C. Monnin P. 2008 Fundamental Real Estate Prices: An Empirical Estimation with International Data The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics No. 36(4) pp. 427-450.

  • Krzywda M. 201 GPW II. Akcje i analiza fundamentalna w praktyce (GPW II. Stocks and Fundamental Analysis in Practice) Wydawnictwo Złote Myśli (Golden Thoughts Publishing) Gliwice Poland.

  • Kucharska-Stasiak E. 2006 Nieruchomość w gospodarce rynkowej (Real Estate in the Market Economy) PWN (Polish Scientific Publishers) Warsaw Poland.

  • Kucharska-Stasiak E. Schneider B. Załęczna M. 2009 Methodology for Local and Regional Real Estate Market University of Lodz Press Łódź Poland.

  • Kulesza S. Bełej M. 2014 Dynamics of the Real Estate Prices in the Light of the Catastrophe Theory Folia Oeconomica No. 3(302) pp. 211-221.

  • Kulesza S. Bełej M. 2015 Local Real Estate Markets in Poland as a Network of Damped Harmonic Oscillators Acta Physica Polonica A No. 127 (2015) No. 3-A pp. 99- 102. DOI:10.12693/APhysPolA.127.A-99.

  • Liu W. Huang X. & ZHENG W. 2006 Black-Scholes’ Model and Bollinger Bands Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications No. 371(2) pp. 565-571.

  • Łuniewska M. 2012 Ekonometria finansowa: analiza rynku kapitałowego (Financial Econometrics: Analysis of Capital Market) PWN Warszawa.

  • Murphy J.J. 1998 Międzyrynkowa analiza techniczna (Cross-market Technical Analysis) WIG-Press Warsaw.

  • Murphy J.J. 1999 Technical Analysis of the Financial Market. A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications New York Institute of Finance NY USA.

  • Nelson S.A. 1903 The A B C of Stock Speculation S.A. Nelson Publisher NY USA.

  • Nison S. 1994 Beyond Candlesticks: New Japanese Charting Techniques Revealed (Vol. 56) John Wiley & Sons.

  • Osler C.L. Chang P.H. 1995 Head and Shoulders: Not just a Flaky Pattern FRB of New York staff report No. 4 August.

  • Panfil M. Szablewski A. 2013 Dylematy wyceny przedsiębiorstwa (Dillemas in Enterprise Valuation) Wydawnictwo Poltext (Poltext Publishing) Warsaw.

  • Plummer T. 2009 Forecasting Financial Markets: the Psychology of Successful Investing Kogan Page Publishers London and Philadelphia.

  • Renigier-Biłozor M. 2013 Structure of a Decision Support Subsystem in Real Estate Management Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia No. 13(1) pp. 56-75.

  • Rodrigue J-P et al. 2013 The Geography of Transport Systems Hofstra University Department of Global Studies & Geography Alternatively the book can also be cited: Rodrigue J-P. 2013 The Geography of Transport Systems Third Edition New York: Routledge.

  • Roehner B.M. 1999 Spatial Analysis of Real Estate Price Bubbles: Paris 1984-1993 Regional Science and Urban Economics No. 29(1) pp. 73-88.

  • Roubini N. Mihm S. 2010 Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance Penguin NY USA.

  • Shiller R.J. 1990 Speculative Prices and Popular Models The Journal of Economic Perspectives No. 4(2) pp. 55-65.

  • Qi S. Wan Q. Zhang Y. 2011 Market Trend Forecasting of Real Estate Base on K- line Theory and Bollinger Bands Journal of Wuhan University of Technology (Information & Management Engineering) No. 33(4) pp. 622-625.

  • Shiller R. J. 2009 Unlearned Lessons from the Housing Bubble The Economists' Voice No. 6(7) pp. 1-2.

  • Sornette D. Woodard R. 2010 Financial Bubbles Real Estate Bubbles Derivative Bubbles and the Financial and Economic Crisis (pp. 101-148) IN: Takayasu M. Takayasu H. & Watanabe T. Econophysics Approaches to Large-Scale Business Data and Financial Crisis. Springer Tokyo Japan.

  • Stanisz A. 2006 Przystępny kurs statystyki: z zastosowaniem STATISTICA PL na przykładach z medycyny (An Accessible Coarse in Statistics: with Applying STATISTICA PL on Examples from the Field of Medicine) Statystyki podstawowe (Basic Statistics) StatSoft Kraków.

  • Szyszka A. 2013 Behavioral Finance and Capital Markets: How Psychology Influences Investors and Corporations Palgrave Macmillan NY USA.

  • Tsatsaronis K.. Zhu H. 2004 What Drives Housing Price Dynamics: Cross-Country Evidence BIS Quarterly Review March.

  • Wagner G. S. Matheny B.L. 1994 Trading Applications of Japanese Candlestick Charting Vol. 38 John Wiley & Sons.

  • Widłak M. Augustyniak H. Łaszek J. Olszewski K. 2013 Analiza sektora nieruchomości w Polscemonitoring cen Bezpieczny Bank (Analsyis of the Real Estate Sector in Poland - Monitoring Prices Safe Bank) No. 4(53) pp. 124-203.

  • Zielonka P. 2006 Giełda i psychologia. Behawioralne aspekty inwestowania na rynku papierów wartościowych (The Stock Market and Psychology. Behavioral Aspects of Investing in the Securities Market) Wydawnictwo CeDeWu (CeDeWu Publishing House) Warsaw.

  • Zhou W.X. Sornette D. 2006 Is there a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications No. 361(1) 297-308.

  • Zyga J. 2015 Search for Dissimilarity Factors for Nominally Indiscernible Facilities Real Estate Management and Valuation No. 23(3) pp. 65-72.

  • Źróbek S. (Ed.) 2006 Metodyka określania wartości rynkowej nieruchomości: przykłady operatów szacunkowych (Methodology for Determining the Market Value of Real Estate: Examples of Appraisal Reports) Educaterra Olsztyn.

Journal information
Impact Factor

CiteScore 2018: 0.64

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2018: 0.275
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2018: 0.825

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 205 111 10
PDF Downloads 125 91 5