The Middle East and North Africa region has been an important player in the swift demographic transition process that happened in many parts of the developing world starting in the mid-twentieth century. This demographic change was not independent from the developmental efforts and political transformations that the region was experiencing. Social and demographic change in the Middle East and North Africa brought with them power struggles, changes in social and political structures, and confusion in all areas of social life, all of which could be seen in the region. This paper focuses on the more general aspects of the demographic and social characteristics in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa in 1950, 1980, and 2015, bearing in mind the relationship between mentalities and events, and dealing with the issue through the lens of social change, demographic change, resistance, and the struggle for political change in an international context. This study has two main approaches. First, it investigates demographic changes and spatial clustering with a qualitative (cluster analysis) approach in Middle Eastern and North Africa countries based on selected demographic indicators for the years 1950, 1980, and 2015. Then it discusses the relationship between the outcomes of these demographic changes and recent socio-political developments in the region. One of the main findings of this study is MENA countries present three different structures in different time-periods in terms of demographics and these structures are responsible for the regional social, economic, and political transformations.
Addio, A.C. & Ercole, M.M. (2005). Trends and determinants of fertility in OECD countries: The role of policies. Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, no. 27.Cedex.
Afifi, A.A. & Clark, V. (1999). Computer-Aided Multivariate Analysis. Third ed., London: Chapman and Hall/CRC Press. 455p.
Allman, J. (1980). The demographic transition in the Middle East and North Africa. International Journal of Middle East Studies, 12(3): 277-301.
Bacher, J. (2002). Cluster Analysis. Nuremberg: University Erlangen.
Bongaarts, J. (2008). Fertility transitions in developing countries: Progress or stagnation? Studies in Family Planning, 39(2): 105-110.
Bongaarts, J. & Watkins, S.C. (1996). Social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions. Population and Development Review, 22: 639-682.
Brzezinski, Z. (2004). The wrong way to sell democracy to the Arab World. New York Times, March 8. 2004. A19p.
Caldwell, J. C. (2006). Demographic Transition Theory. Dordrecht: Springer. 418 p.
Cammett, M. (2013). The political economy of development in the Middle East. In: E. Lust, (Ed.), The Middle East, pp.161-208. London: CQ Press.
Cook, S. (2007). Ruling but Not Governing: The Military and Political Development in Egypt, Algeria, and Turkey. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. 55p.
Çokluk, Ö., Şekercioğlu, G. & Büyüköztürk, Ş. (2010). Sosyal Bilimler İçin Çok Değişkenli İstatistik, SPSS ve LISREL Uygulamaları (Multivariate Statistics for Social Science, SPSS and LISREL Applications). Ankara: Pegem Akademi Press. 414p.
Everitt, B. S. & Dunn, G. (1991). Applied Multivariate Data Analysis. London: Cambridge University Press. 126p.
Issawi, C. (1982). An Economic History of the Middle East and North Africa. New York: Columbia University Press. 328 p.
Fargues, P. (1993). Demography and politics in the Arab World. Population: An English Selection, 5: 1-20.
Khan, H. T. A., Hussein, S., & Deane, J. (2017). Nexus between demographic change and elderly care need in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: Some policy implications. Ageing International (forthcoming). DOI: 10.1007s12126-017-9303-9
Moghadam, V. M., & Decker, T. (2013). Social change in the Middle East. In: E. Lust, (Ed.), The Middle East, pp.73-106. London: CQ Press.
Morrill, R. (1993). Development, diversity and regional demographic variability in the US. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 83: 406-433.
Newbold, K. B. (2010). Population Geography: Tools and Issues. New York: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc. 309p.
Nijim, B. K. (1985). Spatial Aspects of Demographic Change in the Arab World. In: S. G. Hajjar, (Ed.), The Middle East: From Transition to Development, pp.30-53. Leiden: E.J. Brill.
Reher, D.S. (2004). The demographic transition revisited as a global process. Population, Space and Place, 10(1): 19-41.
Rencher, A.C. (2002). Methods of Multivariate Analysis. Second ed., London: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 693p.
Rowland, D. T. (2012). Demographic Methods and Concepts. New York: Oxford University Press. 546p.
The World Bank. (2004). Mena Development Report, Gender and Development in the Middle East and North Africa: Women in the Public Sphere. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. 198p.
Tlemcani, R. (1990). Chadli’s Perestroika. Middle East Report. No 163. March-April 1990: 14-17.
Özdamar, K. (2010). Paket Programlar ile İstatistiksel Veri Analizi 2 (Statistical Data Analysis with Package Programs), 7th ed., Ankara: Kaan Press. 506p.
Uçar, N. (2010). Kümeleme analizi (Cluster analysis). In: Ş. Kalaycı, (Ed.), SPSS Uygulamalı Çok Değişkenli İstatistik Teknikleri (Multivariate Statistical Techniques with SPSS Applications), pp. 347-376. Ankara: Asil Publishing.
UN (United Nations) (2017). World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision Data Base. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. Accessed from https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DataQuery/ on 10 February 2017.
Weeks, J. R. (2002). Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues. Belmont: Wadsworth Thomson Learning. 640 p.
Weinstein, J. & Pillai, V.K. (2001). Demography: The Science of Population, Boston: Allyn and Bacon. 450 p.
Winckler, O. (2003). Fertility transition in the Middle East: The case of the Israeli Arabs, Israel Affairs, 9: 39-67.
Winckler, O. (1998). Rapid population growth and the fertility policies of the Arab countries of the Middle East and North Africa. In Transformation of Middle Eastern Natural Environments. J. Albert, M. Bernharsson and R. Kenna (eds.), pp. 444-466. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Yaukey, D., Anderton, D.L. & Lundquist, J.H. (2007). Demography: The Study of Human Population. Illinois: Waveland. 424 p.
Yüceşahin, M. M. (2016). Afrika: Demografik yapı, mekân, sorunlar ve gelecek? (Africa: Demographic structure, space, challenges and future?). Nüfusbilim Dergisi / The Turkish Journal of Population Studies, 35: 31-61.