This paper presents assumptions and process of the forming of a risk assessment model for collision between a passenger ferry departing from or approaching port of Świnoujście and a chemical tanker carrying a dangerous cargo. In order to assess navigational safety on the basis of data obtained from AIS system, were prepared probabilistic domains of ships, which made it possible to estimate number of navigational incidents as well as their spatial distribution, that consequently allowed to determine potentially dangerous areas. The next phase was formulation of a simulative model intended for the calculating of probability of collision between the ferry and chemical tanker as well as the determining of characteristic scenarios for such collision. This paper presents also an analysis of consequences of the collision with taking into consideration a damage of cargo tanks.
1. ALOHA® User’s Manual NOAA and EPA, February 2007
2. IMO: Annex 6, Resolution MEPC.118(52), (Revised Annex II of MARPOL 73/78), Adopted on 15 October 2004
3. Gucma L., Marcjan K.: Probabilistic model of minimal passing distances of vessels navigating in Polish coastal waters. PSAM11&ESREL, 2012.
4. Minorsky V. : An Analysis of Ship Collision with Reference to Protection of Nuclear Power Ship. Journal of Ship Research, Vol. 3., 1959
5. PIANC: Report of the International Commission for Improving the Design of Fenders Systems. Supplement to PIANC Bulletin N 45. Brussels 1984
6. Przywarty M., Gucma L.: Model of Time Differences Between Schedule and Actual Time of Departure of Sea Ferries in the Świnoujście Harbour. Miscellaneous problems in Maritime Navigation, edited by Adam Weintrit, Tomasz Neuman, Gdynia 2011.