Statistical and econometric analysis of the correlation between financial transactions and real economy

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Abstract

The economic activity generates two types of flows: flows of goods and services and cash flows. These two types of flows generate two types of circuits in the economy, flows of goods and services generate the circuit corresponding to real economy and monetary flows (incomes and expenditures) generate the monetary - financial circuit. The monetary circuit is fundamentally determined by the level and structure of real economy. Comparing production revenue used for consumption with the amount of products and services produced and purchased, an average pricing is obtained. Unless the condition that the revenues generated in the economy are equal to production, it will lead to rising prices, i.e., inflation. Therefore, an adequate correlation between financial flows and real economy must be ensured. From this perspective, were analysed countries from European Union over time, using panel analysis.

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