Our goal is to get better understanding of different kind of dependencies behind the high-level capability areas. The models are suitable for investigating present state capabilities or future developments of capabilities in the context of technology forecasting. Three levels are necessary for a model describing effects of technologies on military capabilities. These levels are capability areas, systems and technologies. The contribution of this paper is to present one possible model for interdependencies between technologies. Modelling interdependencies between technologies is the last building block in constructing a quantitative model for technological forecasting including necessary levels of abstraction. This study supplements our previous research and as a result we present a model for the whole process of capability modelling. As in our earlier studies, capability is defined as the probability of a successful task or operation or proper functioning of a system. In order to obtain numerical data to demonstrate our model, we conducted a questionnaire to a group of defence technology researchers where interdependencies between seven representative technologies were inquired. Because of a small number of participants in questionnaires and general uncertainties concerning subjective evaluations, only rough conclusions can be made from the numerical results.
Gediminas Adomavicius, Jesse C. Bockstedt, Alok Gupta, Robert J. Kauffman (2005). Technology roles and paths of influence in an ecosystem model of technology evolution, Information Technology and Management, Vol. 8, Issue 2, 185-202.
Muhammad Amer, Tugrul U. Daim, Antonie Jetter (2013). A review of scenario planning, Futures 46, 23-40.
Patrick T. Biltgen, Dimitri N. Mavris (2007). Capability-based quantitative technology evaluation for systems-of-systems, IEEE System of Systems Engineering Conference.
Anelí Bongers, José L. Torres (2014). Measuring technological trends: A comparison between U.S. and U.S.S.R./Russian jet fighter aircraft, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 87, 125-134.
Robert F. Bordley, Stephen M. Pollock (2009). A decision-analytic approach to reliability-based design optimization, Operations Research 57, 1262-1270.
Sean Bourdon, Benoit Arbour, Matthew R. MacLeod (2014). A method for hierarchically prioritizing capabilities with an application to military manned and unmanned aerial vehicles, Journal of Applied Operational Research 6(1), 39-47.
Carolina Castaldi, Roberto Fontana, Alessandro Nuvolari (2009). The evolution of tank technology, 1915-1945, Journal of Evolutionary Economics 19(4), 545-566.
Mario Coccia (2003). An approach to the measurement of technological chance based on the intensity of innovation, Ceris working paper.
Mario Coccia (2005). Technometrics: Origins, historical evolution and new directions, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 72, 944-979.
Metin Dagdeviren, Serkan Yavuz, Nevzat Kilinc (2009). Weapon selection using the AHP and TOPSIS methods under fuzzy environment, Expert Systems and Applications 36, 8143-8151.
Jan van den Ende, Wilfred Dolsma (2002). Technology push, demand pull and the shaping of technological paradigms - patterns in the development of computing technology, ERIM report series ERS-2002-93-ORG.
Koen Frenken, Loet Leydesdorff (2000). Scaling trajectories in civil aircraft (1913-1997), Research Policy 29(3), 331-348.
Koen Frenken (2006). Technological innovation and complexity theory, Economics of Innovation and New Technology 15(2), 137-155.
Paul Goodwin, George Wright (2010). The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 77, 355-368.
Jan G. De Gooijer and Rob J. Hyndman (2006). 25 Years of Timer Series Forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, 22 (3), 443-473.
Theodore J. Gordon, Thomas R. Munson (1981). A proposed convention for measuring the state of the art of products or processes, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 20, 1-26.
Juhani S. Hämäläinen, Juha-Pekka Nikkarila (2015). Analyzing Strategy Effectiveness With Resource Profit Ratio Integrals, ISMS Conference.
Andrew D. James (2013). Emerging technologies and military capability, RSIS / Policy Briefs, Retrieved 10.10.2015 from http://www.rsis.edu.sg/search/?q=andrew+james.
Jiang Jiang, Xuan Li, Zhi-jie Zhou, Dong-ling Xu, Ying-wu Chen (2011). Weapon system capability assessment under uncertainty based on the evidential reasoning approach, Expert Systems with Applications 38, 13773-13784.
Byoung Soo Kim (2012). Measuring technological change - concepts, methods, and implications in Technological Change, Aurora Teixeira (Ed.), Retrieved 10.10.2015 from http://www.intechopen.com/books/howtoreference/technological-change/measuring-technological-change-concept-methods-and-implications.
Vesa Kuikka, Juha-Pekka Nikkarila, Marko Suojanen (2015). A technology forecasting method for capabilities of a system of systems, PICMET Conference.
Vesa Kuikka, Marko Suojanen (2014). Modelling the impact of technologies and systems on military capabilities, Journal of Battlefield Technology, Vol. 17, No. 2, 9-16.
David M. Levine, Mark L. Berenson, Timothy C. Krehbiel, David F. Stephan (2010). Statistics for Managers Using MS Excel, 6th Edition, Pearson, Chapter 13 Retrieved 10.10.2015 from http://www.prenhall.com/behindthebook/0136149901/pdf/Levine_CH13.pdf.
Joseph P. Martino (1993). Technological Forecasting for Decision Making, McGraw-Hill, Inc., McGraw-Hill Engineering and Technology Management Series.
Johann Peter Murmann, Koen Frenken (2006). Toward a systematic framework for research on dominant designs, technological innovations, and industrial change, Research Policy 35, 925-952.
Pier Paolo Saviotti, Adreas Pyka (2013). The co-evolution of innovation, demand and growth, Economics of Innovation and New Technology 22(5), 461-482.
P. P. Saviotti, G. S. Mani (1995). Competition, variety and technological evolution: a replicator dynamics model, Evolutionary Economics 5, 369-392.
Antoine Schoen, Lionel Villard, Patricia Laurens, Jean-Philippe Cointet, Gaston Heimeriks, Floortje Alkemade (2012). The network structure of technological development; technological distance as a walk on the technology map, Science & Technology Indicators (STI).
Johan Schot, Frank W. Geels (2007). Niches in evolutionary theories of technical change - A critical survey of the literature, J. Evol Econ, Vol. 17, 605-622.
Seunghwan Oh, Sungmoon Jung, Jaemin Park, Chang Sun Kim (2013). Measuring technology level on a mixed model: A case of Korean photovoltaic technology, International Journal of Digital Content Technology and its Applications, Vol. 7, No. 13.
Jiyeon Ryu, Soon Cheon Byen (2011). Technology level evaluation methology based on the technology growth curve, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78, 1049-1059.
Marko Suojanen, Vesa Kuikka, Juha-Pekka Nikkarila, Jari Nurmi (2015). An example of scenario-based evaluation of military capability areas - an impact assessment of alternative systems on operations, IEEE International Systems Conference.
Esmond N. Urwin, Colin C. Venters, Duncan J. Russell, Lu Liu, Zongyang Luo, David E. Webster, Michael Henshaw, Jie Xu (2010). Scenario-based design and evaluation for capability, 2010 5th International Conference on System of Systems Engineering.
Paul Windrum, Cecilia Diaz, Despoina Filiou (2009). Exploring the relationship between technical and service characteristics, J Evol Econ 19 567-588.
Elizabeth Jones Wyatt, Kelly Griendling, Dimitri N. Mavris (2012). Addressing interoperability in military systems-of-systems architectures, Systems Conference.
Charles Zaiontz (2015). Real Statistics Using Excel, Retrieved 10.10.2015 from http://www.real-statistics.com.