Third demographic transition and demographic dividend: An application based on panel data analysis

Open access

Abstract

The third demographic transition, barely mentioned by some authors and implicit for others, refers to changes in the demographic structures of the most developed countries promoted by the most recent migratory flows, with repercussions in aspects such as age structure or the composition of the labour market. The concept of the third demographic transition revolves around the increasing presence of foreigners, many of whom take up jobs that nationals reject, as well as other more skilled posts. Using the panel data methodology, we try to explain the third demographic dividend whose impact can be seen in the labour market. The results enable us to conclude that the foreign worker differential puts downward pressure on salaries, which affects other groups. If workers are available and policies are constructive, this leads to positive results and social wealth.

Bauer, T. K.; Lofstrom, M. and Zimmermann, K. F., 2000: Immigration policy, assimilation of immigrants and natives’ sentiments towards immigrants: evidence from 12 OECD-countries. In: IZA Discussion Paper, 187. Available at http://ftp.iza.org/dp187.pdf (DoA: 20/03/2017).

Bench, E. C. and Mouritsen, P., 2013: Restricting the right to family migration in Denmark: When human rights collide with a welfare state under pressure. In: Jurado, E. and Brochmann, G. (Eds.), Europe’s immigration challenge. Reconciling work, welfare and mobility. (Chapter 9). London: IB Tauris.

Bloom, D. E.; Canning, D. and Sevilla, J., 2003: The demographic dividend. A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Santa Monica: Rand.

Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Fink, G. and Finlay, J. E., 2007: Realizing the demographic dividend: is Africa any different?. In: Program on the Global Demography of Aging Working Paper Series, 23. Available at http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/program-on-the-global-demography-of-aging/WorkingPapers/2007/pgda_wp23_2007.pdf (DoA: 22/03/2017).

Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Fink, G. and Finlay, J. E., 2009: Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend. In Journal and Economic Growth, 14: 79-101.

Bloom, D. E.; Humair, S.; Rosemberg, C.; Sevilla, J. and Trusell, J., 2013: A demographic dividend for sub-saharan Africa: source, magnitude and realization. In: Program on the global demography of aging working paper, 110. Available at http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/program-on-the-global-demography-of-aging/WorkingPapers/2013/PGDA_WP_110.pdf (DoA: 20/03/2017).

Borjas, G. J., 2006: Native internal migration and the labor market impact of migration. In: The Journal of Human Resources, XLI(2): 221-258.

Carstensen, L. L. and Fried, L. P., 2011: The meaning of old age. In: Beard, J.R., Biggs, S. Bloom, D.E., Fried, L. P., Hogan, P., Kalache, A. and. Olshansky, S. J. (Eds.), Global population ageing: Peril or promise (Chapter 1). Geneva: World Economic Forum.

Cai, F., 2010: Demographic transition, demographic dividend, and Lervis turning point in China. In: China Economic Journal, 3(2): 107-119.

Canudas-Romo, V. and Gillot, M., 2015: Truncated cross-sectional average length of life: a measure of comparing the mortality history of cohorts. In: Population Studies, 69(2): 147-159.

Carrasco, R.; Jimeno, J. F. and Ortega, A. C., 2008: The effect of immigration on the labor market performance of native-born workers: some evidence of Spain. In: Journal of Population Economics, 21: 627-648.

Chandrasekhar, C. P.; Gosh, J. and Roychowdury, A., 2006: The “demographic dividend” and young India’s economic future. In: Economic and Political Weekly, 41(49): 5055-5064.

Coale, A. J., 1973: The Demographic Transition considered. Proceedings of the International Population Conference, Liege. In: Liege, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population: 53-57.

Coale, A. J., 1984: The Demographic Transition. In: The Pakistan Development Review, XXIII(4): 531-552.

Cohen-Goldner, S. and Paserman, M. D., 2011: The dynamic impact on native’s labor market outcomes: ev idence from Israel. In: European Economic Review, 55: 1027-1045.

Coleman, D., 2006: Immigration and ethnic change in low-fertility countries: a Third Demographic Transition. In: Population and Development Review, 32(3): 401-446.

D’Anuri, F.; Ottaviano, G. I. P. and Peri, G., 2010: The labor market impact of immigration in Western Germany in the 1990s. In: European Economic Review, 54: 550-570.

Douglas, R. M., 2012: Orderly and humane. The expulsion of the germans after the Second World War. New Haven: Yale University Press.

Dribe, M. et al., 2017: Socio-economic status and fertility decline: Insights from historical transitions in Europe and North America. In: Population Studies, 71(1): 3-21. DoA: dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2016.1253857

Dustmann, C., Glitz, A. and Vogel, T., 2010: Employment, wages, and the economic cycle: differences between immigrants and natives. In: European Economic Review, 54: 1-17.

Durbin, J., Watson, G. S., 1950: Testing for Serial Correlation in Least Squares Regression, I. In: Biometrika, 37(3–4): 409–428. DoA:10.1093/biomet/37.3-4.409.

Durbin, J., Watson, G. S., 1951:Testing for Serial Correlation in Least Squares Regression, II. In: Biometrika, 38(1–2): 159–179. DoA:10.1093/biomet/38.1-2.159

Erikson E., and Erikson, J., 1981: On generativity and identity: From a conversation with Erik and Joan Erikson. In: Harvard Educational Review, 51(2): 249–269.

Fried L. P. 2015: A prescription for the next 50 years of Medicare. In: Generations, Vol. 39 (2), pp. 180–188.

Fang, C. and Wen, Z., 2012: When demographic dividend disappears. Growth sustainability in China. In: Aoki, M. and Wu, J. (eds), The Chinese economy: a new transition. New York: Palmgrave-MacMillan: 75-90.

Fried L. P., 2016: Investing in health to create a third demographic dividend. In: The Gerontologist, 56 (Suppl. 2): S167–S177. DoA: 10.1093/geront/gnw035

Gang, I. N. and Rivera-Batiz, F., 1994: Labour market effects of immigration in the United States and Europe. Substitution vs. complementarity. In: Journal of Population Economics, 7: 157-175.

Glitz, A., 2012: The labour impact of immigration: a quasi-experiment exploiting immigration location rules in Germany. In: Journal of Labor Economics, 30(1): 175-213.

Huber, P. and Oberdabernig, D., 2015: The impact of welfare benefits on natives’ and immigrants’ attitudes towards immigration. In: WWW for Europe Working Paper, No. 82. Available at http://www.foreurope.eu/fileadmin/documents/pdf/Workingpapers/WWW-forEurope_WPS_no082_MS17_Backgroundpaper.pdf (DoA: 21/03/2017)

Hansen, R., 2002: Citizenship and immigration in postwar Britain. The institutional origin of a multicultural nation. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Islam, A. and Parasnis, J., 2016: Native-migrant wage differential across occupations: evidence from Australia. In: International Migration, 54(3): 89-109.

Jäckle, S. and König, P. D., 2016: The dark side of the German “welcome culture”: investigating the causes behind attacks on refugees in 2015. In: West European Politics. DoA: dx.doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2016.1215614.

James, K. S., 2008: Glorifying Malthus current debate on “demographic dividend” in India. In: Economic and political Weekly, 43(25): 63-69.

Jean, S. and Jiménez, M., 2011: The unemployment impact of immigration in OECD countries. In: European Economic Review, 55: 241-256.

Jordi, J. J., 2002: Les pieds noir: constructions identitaires et réinvention des origines. Hommes et Migrations, 1236: 14-25.

Kirk, D., 1996: Demographic Transition Theory. In: Population Studies, 50(3): 361-387. DoA: dx.doi. org/10.1080/0032472031000149536

Kreager, Ph., 2009: Two concepts of population: the long view. Paper prepared for the XXVI IUSSP International Population Conference. Available at http://iussp2009.princeton.edu/papers/90656.

Landry, A., 1934: La Révolution Démographique: Etudes et essais sur les problemes de la population. Paris: Librairie du Recueil Sirey.

Lee, R., and Mason, A., 2006: What is the Demographic Dividend?. In: Finance and Development, 43(3). Available at http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fan-dd/2006/09/basics.htm (DoA: 24/03/2017).

Lemaitre, G., 2007: The integration of immigrants into the labour market: The case of Sweden. In: OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, 48.

Lesthaeghe, R. and Karel N., 2002: From the first to the second demographic transition: An interpretation of the spatial continuity of demographic innovation in France, Belgium and Switzerland. In: European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, 18(4): 325–360. DoA: 10.1023/A:102112580007

Marozzi, M., 2016: Construction, robustness assessment and application of an index of perceived level of socio-economic threat from immigrants: A study of 47 European countries and regions. In: Social Indicators Research, 128(1): 413-437. Available at link.springer. com/article/10.1007/s11205-015-1037-z.

Mason, A. and Lee, R., 2006: Reform and support systems for the elderly in developing countries: capturing the second dividend”. In: Genus, LXII(2): 11-35.

Mason, A., 2007: Demographic transition and demographic dividends in developed and developing countries. In: United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structure. Mexico City, 31 August-2 September 2005. New York: United Nations: 81-101.

Mason, A. and Lee, R., 2007: Transfer, capital, and consumption over the Demographic Transition. In: Clark, R., Ogawa, N. and Mason, A. (Eds.), Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar: 128-162.

Masquelier, B., Reiners, G. and Pison, G., 2014: Divergences in trends in child and adult mortality in sub-saharan Africa: survey evidence on the survival of children and sibling. In: Population Studies, 68(2): 161-177.

Mayda, A. M., 2006: Who is against immigration? A cross-country investigation of individual attitudes towards immigrants. In: Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(3): 510-530. DoA: 10.1162/rest.88.3.510.

Mejia Guevara, I., Vélez Hernández Varela, F. and García López, J. E., 2010: El primer dividendo demográfico y los sistemas de protección social en México. In: Notas de Población, 7(90): 133-162.

Messina, A. M., 2007: The logics and politics of post-WWII migration to western Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Moultrie, T. A.; Sayi, S. T. and Timaeus, M., 2012: Birth intervals, postponement and fertility decline in Africa: a new type of transition?. In: Population Studies, 66(3): 241-258.

Notestein, F. W., 1945: Population: the long view. In: Shulz, T. W. (Ed.), Food for de World. Chicago: University of Chicago Press: 36-57.

Notestein, F. W., 1953: Economics problems of population change. Proceedings of the Eight Conference of Agricultural Economists. London: Oxford University Press: 140-152.

Pew Research Center, 2015: Chapter 1: Main factors driving population growth. The Pew Charitable Trust. Available at www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/main-factors-driving-population-growth/.

Phang, H. S. and Mason, A., 2007: Demographic dividend and labour force transformation in Asia: the case of Republic of Korea. In: United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structure. Mexico City, 31 August-2 September 2005. New York: United Nations: 119-139.

Reinisch, J. and White, E., 2011: The disentanglement of population. Migration, expulsion and displacement in post-war Europe. New York Palgrave Macmillan: 1944-9.

Szreter, S., 2015: Fertility, social class, gender, and the professional model: Statistical explanation and historical significance. In: Economic History Review, 68(2): 707–722. DoA: 10.1111/ehr.12102.

Thompson, W. S., 1929: Population. In: American Journal of Sociology, 34(6): 959-975.

Timaeus, I. M. and Jasseh, M., 2004: Adult mortality in sub-saharan Africa: evidence from demographic and health surveys. In: Demography, 41(4): 757-772.

Turra, C. M. and Queiroz, B. L., 2007: Before it’s too late: demographic transition, labour supply, and social security problems in Brazil. In: United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structure. Mexico City, 31 August-2 September 2005. New York: United Nations: 103-118.

Van der Kaa, D. J., 2002: The idea of a second transition in industrialized countries. Paper presented at the Sixth Welfare Policy Seminar of the National Institute of Population and Social Security, Tokyo, Japan. Available at www.ipss.go.jp/web-ad/webjournal.files/population/2003_4/kaa.pdf (DoA: 21/03/2017).

Van der Kaa, D. J., 2004: Is the second demographic transition a useful research concept. Questions and answers. In: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 2: 4-10.

Wang, F., 2007: Demographic dividend and prospect for economic development in China. In: United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structure. Mexico City, 31 August-2 September 2005. New York, United Nations: 81-141-154.

Wongboosin, K., Guest, Ph. and Prachuabmoh, V., 2005: Demographic change and the demographic dividend in Thailand. In: Asian Population Studies, 1(2): 245-256.

Zelinsky, W., 1971: The hypothesis of mobility transition. In: Geographical Review, 61(2): 219-249.

Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series

The Journal of Nicolaus Copernicus University, Torun

Journal Information


CiteScore 2017: 0.63

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2017: 0.277
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2017: 0.391

Metrics

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 184 184 29
PDF Downloads 245 245 21